Ceasefire agreement takes effect in Gaza: a fragile step towards peace or just a pause?

A first-phase ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas came into effect at noon on Friday, according to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF).

The first phase of the peace plan, achieved after three days of intensive negotiations mediated by Egypt, Qatar, Türkiye and the United States, includes the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza City, the north, Rafah and Khan Younis, the opening of five crossings for the entry of humanitarian aid, and the release of hostages and prisoners.

The agreement has been welcomed internationally as a chance to alleviate the suffering of civilians in Gaza. Yet, as questions swirl over its durability, observers are asking whether this marks the beginning of a genuine peace process or merely a tactical pause before fighting resumes.

Israeli media have published what they describe as the joint text signed by Israel, Hamas and mediating parties. According to the document, military operations are to stop immediately, and humanitarian aid is to be allowed to flow into Gaza without restriction. Within 24 hours of the ceasefire, Israeli forces are required to pull back to a so-called "yellow line," a reference to a ceasefire map released by the White House last month that outlines multiple stages of withdrawal. Within the following 72 hours, Hamas is to release all Israeli captives – including the remains of the deceased – in exchange for the release of Palestinian detainees from Israeli prisons. Oversight is to be provided by a working group involving the U.S., Qatar, Egypt and Türkiye.

At the heart of the deal is the exchange of hostages and prisoners. Hamas negotiator Khalil al-Hayya said the group would hand over 48 Israeli captives, of whom 20 are believed to be alive, in return for approximately 1,950 Palestinians in Israeli jails. He added that mediators had provided assurances that the war would "completely end."

Developments after the truce

Soon after the ceasefire took effect, the IDF announced it had completed its withdrawal redeployment. IDF spokesperson Effie Defrin emphasized that Israeli troops remain positioned within Gaza, retaining defensive and operational capacity. He underlined that Israel was prepared to resume hostilities if its objectives were not achieved through negotiations. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu echoed that message, saying Israel "still controls all key areas" in Gaza and had already reached its military goals.

Hamas, for its part, insisted that Israel must fully withdraw from all densely populated areas in Gaza, calling the coming days "a test of Israel's credibility." Palestinian media on Friday reported that even after the agreement was approved, parts of northern Gaza, including Jabalia and Gaza City, were hit by Israeli strikes.

The question of detainee releases also remains unsettled. Israel published a list of 250 Palestinians sentenced to life imprisonment who could be freed under the deal, though Hamas said the sides had not yet reached agreement on the names.

Some media reported that the exchanges are expected in the coming days. Meanwhile, Gaza's civil defense authority reported that about 200,000 people had already returned to their homes in the north since the ceasefire took hold, while Hamas officials confirmed that humanitarian aid would begin entering from October 11.

Analysts note that translating the agreement into reality will be fraught with difficulties. Confirming the identities and conditions of detainees, recovering remains and ensuring both sides adhere to the truce are all highly complex tasks. The fact that Israel and Hamas do not communicate directly further complicates matters, making mediators indispensable.

Wang Jin, director of the Center for Strategic Studies at Northwest University in China, said that even the first phase of the agreement faces "very high hurdles."

He explained that the arrangement requires Hamas to release Israeli detainees and return bodies, while Israel must halt its military operations and release large numbers of Palestinian prisoners.

"All of these steps must be carried out in the next few days, through mediators and with the support of international organizations such as the UN. The likelihood of misunderstandings is high, and the process could easily break down," Wang added.

While the first phase is seen as progress, many believe the greater challenge lies in what comes next. Subsequent negotiations are expected to address the possibility of a full Israeli withdrawal and the disarmament of Hamas. Hamas insists that such steps are contingent on an end to Israeli occupation and recognition of Palestinian statehood – conditions that Israel has so far rejected. Netanyahu's government has only committed to the initial stage of the agreement.

Wang pointed out that even if the first stage succeeds, the second stage could prove far more difficult.

For Israel, powerful right-wing and far-right forces strongly oppose any long-term ceasefire or political settlement. They will resist efforts to transform the truce into permanent peace, he said, adding, "For Hamas, internal divisions are also significant. Proposals that weaken Hamas' influence or demand its disarmament are extremely difficult for the group to accept."

He added that sustainable peace in Gaza would require not only agreement between Israel and Hamas but also a reconfiguration of Palestinian internal politics, greater involvement of the Palestinian Authority and a coordinated role for the international community in reconstruction.

"The future of Gaza depends not just on military arrangements but on political consensus, economic rebuilding and a vision for coexistence," he said.

For now, the ceasefire is expected to ease Gaza's humanitarian crisis. With borders partially reopened, aid convoys carrying food, medicine and fuel are expected to reach civilians, while talks are underway to restore electricity supplies. But analysts warn that humanitarian relief alone cannot address Gaza's deeper challenges. The local economy remains paralyzed, and any resumption of hostilities could again cut off vital supply routes.

Gaza-based political analyst Mustafa Ibrahim described the Palestinians' mood as "cautious optimism." He said the ceasefire may alleviate immediate suffering but does not guarantee lasting peace. Given the experience of previous short-lived truces in Gaza, Palestinians can only be guarded in their hope, he remarked.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Thursday urged all parties to seize the opportunity to pursue a political path that ends occupation, ensures Palestinian self-determination and advances the two-state solution. International commentators agree that rebuilding confidence among Israelis and Palestinians is the most critical step, warning that without it, the ceasefire could become merely another pause in a long cycle of violence.