IMF lifts 2025 global growth to 3.2% but warns on US tariffs uncertainty

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its global growth forecast for 2025 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.2 percent, citing the global economy's resilience to trade policy shocks, according to its latest edition of world economic outlook report released on Tuesday.

The fund maintained its 2026 growth projection at 3.1 percent.

However, the IMF warned that the US effective tariff rate remains high—at around 19 percent—and that ongoing trade tensions continue to cloud the global outlook. It noted that trade policy uncertainty remains elevated, particularly in the United States, where firms face heightened unpredictability in the trade environment.

China continues to play a pivotal role in the global economy, with the IMF maintaining its growth forecast for the country at 4.8 percent in 2025. Despite tariff policy adjustments in other major economies, China's global trade has demonstrated resilience, posting a 4 percent year-on-year increase in the first three quarters of 2025.

While China's exports to the United States declined during this period, the drop was offset by rising shipments to the Euro area and member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), according to the latest report.

(Cover via CFP)