China's demographic recalibration: Toward high-quality population development

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The 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-2025) saw profound changes in the Chinese demography. Figures from China's National Health Commission show that by the end of 2024, the country's average life expectancy had risen to 79 years, 1.1 years higher than in 2020.

Lei Haichao, head of China's National Health Commission (NHC), said it marked "a notable improvement" for a developing country. The commission chief had also mentioned earlier that the health gaps among different provinces were shrinking, indicating an improvement in health equality among the Chinese population.

The education level of the country's workforce has also been improving: By 2023, the newly-added labor force in China had over 14 years of education on average; more than 250 million received higher education.

At the same time, challenges exist, too. NHC statistics reveal that by the end of 2024, China's population aged 60 and above had reached 310 million, accounting for 22.0 percent of the total population, while those aged 65 and older numbered 220 million, representing 15.6 percent of the population.

The consequences of an aging society are compounded by a shrinking fertility rate, which had declined for seven consecutive years before a modest rebound in 2024. China must grapple with the two issue together — a demographic transformation that poses implications for labor supply, economic growth and social welfare systems, and long-term, sustainable population development.

The communique released after the fourth plenary session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC), setting goals for China's development in the next five years,  gives Chinese decision-makers' answer to public health: "We should also work to advance the Healthy China initiative, promote high-quality population development, and take solid steps to ensure equitable access to basic public services."

At a press briefing held after the plenary session, Lei further explained the three aspects of the CPC Central Committee's directive on how to tackle the country's demographic challenges: building a "fertility-friendly society," ensuring the elderly are well supported, and encouraging them to contribute.

China's population message is clear: It is not merely reacting to demographic changes but is proactively preparing to promote high-quality development of its population, a strategy that will form the bedrock of its modernization ambitions.

Building a "fertility-friendly society" is the direct and pragmatic response to the fertility issue. The high cost of bringing up children — encompassing education, healthcare, and housing — has continued to make the Chinese people hesitate to have children. The announced combination of tax deductions, direct childcare subsidies, and the expansion of affordable, universal childcare and preschool services is a welcome step.

Furthermore, the commitment to improve maternity insurance and leave systems underscores a holistic approach to supporting the family unit.

The second and third aspects put forward by China's leadership show an equally sophisticated understanding of the other side of the demographic coin. Rather than viewing the rapidly aging population solely as a crisis, the policy framework seeks to transform it into a positivity.

On one hand, the focus on improving the supply of basic elderly care, integrating medical services with nursing, and expanding long-term care insurance is crucial for ensuring dignity and quality of life in old age. On the other hand, encouraging the elderly to contribute means a bold recognition that this demographic group possesses valuable experiences and is far from being just dependents. They have much to offer in China’s social and economic life.

Well aware of the demographic challenges, China's leaders over the past few years have been calling for supporting Chinese modernization with high-quality population development. The demographic recalibration has already begun and the next five years will see how this strategy unfolds.

Of course, the success of this bold blueprint hinges upon its implementation. But a clear vision that puts the people at the center, aims to support its citizens from cradle to old age, and coordinates multi-agency policies is a good start.

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