Editor's note: Muhammad Habib Abiyan Dzakwan, a special commentator on current affairs for CGTN, is a researcher at the Department of International Relations under the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Indonesia. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

The 47th Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Summit and related summits kicked off in Malaysia's capital city, Kuala Lumpur, on October 26.

Following the convening of the first Association of Southeast Asian Nations-Gulf Cooperation Council-China Summit earlier this year, which brought together two cross-regional partners of ASEAN member states, China and ASEAN are now set to sign an upgraded China-ASEAN Free Trade Area (CAFTA) agreement. The new agreement aims to expand cooperation in emerging areas such as digital trade and green development. The move reflects the growing role of developing economies in shaping an open, sustainable and inclusive global economy.

While these milestones deserve celebration, the 21st century also faces geopolitical tensions and rising unemployment. The return of a cold-war mindset in certain regions remains a concern. For emerging economies across the region, the concern runs deeper.

What truly matters is whether major power competition will squeeze the region from multiple directions and cripple the global supply chains that have supported industrialization and growth. When factories slow down and investments retreat, it is the workers in export-oriented economies who end up paying the major price.

For ASEAN, the root causes of unemployment go beyond geopolitical tensions. Technological advancements in global manufacturing powerhouses are also reshaping the job landscape across the region. Technology has made production more efficient, larger in scale and faster. Yet, it has also reduced reliance on certain human skills, if not human labor altogether, as a key input in the production process.

In ASEAN member states with a sizable middle class and strong purchasing power, such progress brings the benefit of cheaper and higher-quality products. But for other ASEAN member states, particularly those still struggling with industrial capacity or digital readiness, the same trend risks deepening inequality and posing new challenges to labor markets.

China could make a meaningful difference. This is not only because it is the world's manufacturing powerhouse, but also because its position as the primary trading and investment partner for all ASEAN member states gives it the capacity to provide much-needed support to regional partners in weathering both geopolitical tensions and rising unemployment.

Back in the Cold War era, the United States not only relocated labor-intensive manufacturing to East Asian countries and moved up the value chain into knowledge-intensive sectors, but also served as a major market for their manufactured goods. As a result, this part of the world flourished into newly industrialized economies, where the gains were collectively shared. Least-developed economies benefited from preferential trade schemes, while emerging ones enjoyed similar opportunities regardless of foreign policy outlook.

Unfortunately, what we are facing today is the absence of the United States, which once willingly absorbed manufactured goods from across the globe. Every country, now developed and developing alike, wants a greater share of manufacturing opportunities without necessarily expanding its own consumption.

Goods produced at home are now preferred under a variety of pretexts, ranging from resilience against pandemic shocks and "national security" concerns to populist calls to reclaim jobs from abroad and even post-colonial sentiment.

The real danger now lies in the fact that breaking this vicious cycle requires answering a fundamental question: to what extent are other leading economies prepared to shoulder their share of responsibility and offer what the world urgently needs – a stable, predictable market as a global public good? 

Against this backdrop, many in ASEAN now look to China as the pivotal partner in filling the void and stabilizing the global economic environment. Some early evidence already suggests this claim is valid.

China continued to lower tariff barriers for least developed economies while repeatedly expressing its intention to pursue consumption-led growth and to strengthen oversight of production. However, it would be far more meaningful if such commitments were reflected in the numbers. Based on the author's calculation, China's exports to ASEAN between 2001 and 2024 have nearly tripled, while its imports from ASEAN during the same period have grown by less than double.

The same pattern can be seen beyond trade. In Indonesia alone over the past decade, Chinese investment has remained largely concentrated in capital-intensive sectors, such as mineral processing, rather than in labor-intensive industries. This needs to change.

Indonesia and other ASEAN member states have not forgotten the goodwill and reassurance that China extended during past crises, such as the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, when China refrained from devaluing its currency and joined the ASEAN+3 Currency Swaps Arrangement, and the 2002 CAFTA negotiations, when China agreed to deliver an early harvest package. Today, ASEAN is glad to see that China is willing to promote ASEAN's common development through various measures.

The signing of CAFTA 3.0 is a timely reminder that reassurance, not rivalry, is what sustains China-ASEAN relations. Let this moment be more than a ceremony and let it mark a shared commitment to a forward-looking partnership that keeps our region open, stable and inclusive.

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