We're on our way: Resolute global signal from China's 15th Five-Year Plan recommendations

Editor's note: Ankit Prasad is a CGTN biz commentator. The article reflects the author's views and not necessarily those of CGTN.

The recently adopted recommendations for China's 15th Five-Year Plan represent a detailed blueprint and agenda of continuity for China's economic and social development. It is forward-looking in its approach, confident in its resolve, honest in its admissions of imbalances and inadequacies, and people-centric at its heart. What it's not, however, is short-sightedly reactive to ongoing disruptions and uncertainties, though it is pragmatic enough to acknowledge them.

5, 15, 100: The timelines for Chinese modernization

To put matters into a timeframe, the recommendations for China's 15th Five-Year Plan represent a quinquennial (once-in-5-years) document that comes midway in a generational plan to achieve a once-in-a-century transformation. The timelines of this fabrege egg of development are important: It's a 5-year plan, that's part of a 15-year endeavor, to achieve something that occurs once in a hundred years. Each of those spans of time — 5, 15 and 100 — is longer than the line-of-sight of administrations and political cycles in many parts of the world.

China's 15th Five-Year Plan will run from 2026 to 2030, and aims at reinforcing the foundations and pushing ahead on all fronts towards basically realizing socialist modernization by 2035, which will be the culmination of the 15-year target that began with the 14th Five-Year Plan in 2020. Consequent to that, the 2049 target, to mark the centenary of the People's Republic of China, is to build a "great modern socialist country" that is "prosperous, strong, democratic, culturally advanced, harmonious and beautiful".

What is aimed to be accomplished by 2049 is arguably of the same scope and significance as the rise of the US as a superpower over the middle years of the 20th century, the industrial revolution that powered the UK during the 19th century, and perhaps even the rise of colonial empires in the 18th century before that. It certainly impacts — directly and indirectly — an equivalent proportion of people, and its effects could be similarly transformative for the rest of the world. And reading through the plan and between the lines, that's the clear signal it sends: That China is inexorably on a path to achieving a rare and real transformation — the train has left the station and is hurtling toward its destination.

At the same time, that doesn't imply that the train is on autopilot with the driver admiring the scenery! Copious consultations at various levels were held during the drafting the 15th Five-Year Plan recommendations. The document "Explanation of the Recommendations of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China for Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development" goes into great detail about the drafting process, which began as early as February, and involved in-depth surveys and studies, research projects, symposiums, opinion solicitation from all quarters and other activities. Some 3 million opinions were received online, which were sorted and condensed into over 1,500 suggestions.

No hyperbole, no bluster: A plan, not a manifesto

Buttressing the ground-up approach is the solemnity and restraint that's evident in the drafting of the document. There is no hint of it being a report card — that has been presented separately by various departments over the course of the last few months with detailed press conferences on the achievements of the 14th Five-Year Plan. Neither does it focus primarily on emotional and notional topics. Instead, it presents a structured and holistic approach showing a firm grasp on real priorities, viz. industrial development, scientific and technological innovation, the domestic market, the economic structure, opening up, rural vitalization, cultural development, public wellbeing, green development, security and development, national defense.

Eschewing flashy declarations, the 15th Five-Year Plan recommendations choose continuing to pursue high-quality economic development as the central task. The headline metric is achieving per-capita income at par with a mid-level developed country by 2035, and the big idea is reinforcing the role of domestic demand as the principal engine of economic growth. Beyond this, the document gets technical and dives into the minutiae, which immediately differentiates it from the manifesto-style of making promises that is prevalent in several parts of the world. Those are exciting, snazzy documents, meant to be eye-catching and generate headlines, often promising material things like bullet trains and moon landings out of the blue with unrealistic timeframes. This, on the other hand, obscures its most exciting features behind economic literature, somehow whetting the appetite for the wondrous reforms and projects China will undoubtedly embark upon even more.

Innovation and self-reliance to trump protectionism and bullying

In some consolation for journalists, it does offer some commentary on the overarching global news story of the year — calling it a profound shift in the international balance of power. "Unilateralism and protectionism are on the rise, and hegemonism and power politics pose greater threats,” the document states, declaring“major-country rivalry is becoming more intricate and intense than ever." For those in whose mindspace the world revolves around Washington D.C., this acknowledgement may seem as an admission that certain tactics deployed to somehow restrain the growth of China and the developing world may be bearing fruit — that bullying and unpredictability are working. But as far as growth challenges go, the mention of external factors is one among many, as the document is refreshingly candid about obstacles and sectors that are currently sub-par.

As a panacea for all maladies, however, the 15th Five-Year Plan recommendations insist "Chinese modernization must be underpinned by modernization in science and technology. We must seize the historic opportunity presented by the new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation to boost China's strength in education, science and technology, and human resources in a well-coordinated manner." Calling for "substantial improvements in scientific and technological self-reliance and strength," it says "full integration should be achieved between technological and industrial innovation, and innovation should play a more prominent role in driving development."

The idea, clearly, is to be immune to ill-advised and unfair moves from across the oceans to put in spanner in China's development — something more and more countries are realizing after recent experiences. The next time someone decides to weaponize tariffs, or impose restrictions on technology exports, or nationalize a China-owned supply chain enterprise on foreign shores, superior domestic technological abilities should render such moves futile. At the same time, the stated focus on substantially increasing the appeal of Chinese culture and soft-power — aspects that go hand-in-hand with real opening-up —will go a long way toward nullifying false narratives and fear-mongering over China's development.

The best way to predict the future is to invent it

Most of all, from a global perspective, the 15th Five-Year Plan period is enormously significant as it comes at a time when China is on the leading-edge of a number of fields of modernization. As much as any other time in history, the future is just as likely to be invented in the East as it is in the West — a shift of seismic proportions — which explains the tumult! But once you look past that, it is clear that just like great transformations of previous eras, China's modernization may bear fruit not only for itself, but for the rest of the world, too.