Why does the longest-ever U.S. government shutdown happen?

The U.S. government shutdown made history once again on Tuesday, reaching its 42nd day and surpassing the previous record of 35 days set by the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump during the 2018-2019 closure. Though signs point to a potential end later this week following a bipartisan compromise in the Senate on Sunday, the prolonged stalemate has already brought mounting consequences for Americans.

Americans blame both Republicans and Democrats for the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, worried that the impact of the government shutdown is expanding, highlights a YouGov survey released on Friday. According to the survey, 32 percent of respondents blame Democrats for the shutdown, 35 percent blame Republicans, and 28 percent hold both parties equally responsible. 

Compared with the previous survey conducted in mid-October, the share blaming mostly Republicans has dropped by 4 percentage points, while the share blaming both sides equally has gone up by 4 percentage points. About one-third of Americans said the shutdown is affecting them either a great deal or somewhat, up from 21 percent who said the same a month ago, the survey shows.

Budget deadlock and political loyalty clash

The U.S. federal government was forced to shut down on October 1 after the Senate failed to pass funding measures from both Republicans and Democrats, as last-minute efforts to avert the shutdown fell through.

The current U.S. federal government shutdown is rooted not only in budget disagreements but also in a deeper struggle over party loyalty and legacy protection, according to Linda Bilmes, senior lecturer in public policy and public finance at Harvard Kennedy School. 

"It should be noted that most shutdowns happen because of budget disagreements, but the current one is different. Republicans now control a trifecta of the House, the Senate, and the presidency – so their goal is to stay aligned with President Trump and what he wants. The Democrats are drawing a line to protect some core programs that were enacted under prior Democratic leadership, including the Affordable Care Act and Medicaid," the expert said.

For Democrats, this is about "taking a stand around the fact that health care is a core Democratic issue" and "an issue that they're going to fight for," she noted, adding that this alignment of partisan loyalty rather than genuine policy compromise has made legislative negotiation extremely difficult.

The budget impasse stems in part from congressional procedures that render the budget process "horribly messy and over-complicated," she said. With key spending bills undone and temporary stopgap resolutions failing, agencies have shuttered non-essential operations and federal workers face furloughs.

As the shutdown drags on, the risk is growing of long-term damage to public trust in government and its fiscal institutions, and the basic core budget process needs to be overhauled, she warned. 

Systemic failures

Mounting political polarization and power struggles between Democrats and Republicans have made government shutdown a recurring feature of U.S. politics. Observers believe that the prolonged shutdowns stem from both parties' unwillingness to yield in a "game of chicken," as they focus on gauging public opinion and calculating their political gains, often placing partisan interests above the welfare of citizens, exposing the failures of the U.S. system.

The first and partial federal government shutdown in U.S. history occurred in 1976. Congressional data show 15 shutdowns since 1980. Experts note that recent shutdowns have become increasingly politicized, highlighting the deepening divisions between the two parties.

Duke University's political science professor David Rohde observed that earlier government shutdowns tended to center on bargaining over routine government activities, and "there was a lot less political heat."

Douglas W. Elmendorf, former Harvard Kennedy School dean and former director of the U.S. Congressional Budget Office, blamed the growing frequency of shutdowns on the lawmakers' lack of appetite for compromise. "The increasing polarization that we see has increased the likelihood and the length of shutdowns," he noted.

Reed Galen, co-founder of the American political organization The Lincoln Project, said the United States "does not face the specter of a government shutdown every September because of policy disagreements or financial constraints, but because the democratic accountability has been so eroded that elected officials have no incentive to compromise, to do the hard work of politics, and devise real solutions."

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