US government shutdown ends with lasting economic pain

After 43 days, the longest government shutdown in US history finally came to an end on November 12. Yet as the federal government reopens, official reports increasingly show that many of the losses inflicted during this unprecedented halt may be impossible to recover fully.

According to an assessment released by the US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) at the end of October, the six-week shutdown reduced the annualized US fourth-quarter GDP growth rate by 1.5 percentage points.

The CBO also estimates that, by the end of 2026, reduced hours worked by furloughed federal employees will lead to a cumulative loss of $11 billion in real GDP under the six-week scenario. In addition, it notes that $7 billion to $15 billion in lost output will be permanently unrecoverable, a consequence of stalled government services, delayed federal contracts, and widespread disruptions across multiple sectors of the economy.

Meanwhile, US National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett stated at a press briefing on Thursday that the government shutdown could lead to the loss of 60,000 private-sector jobs. Citing new estimates from the Council of Economic Advisers, Hassett added that the economy was losing approximately $15 billion in output per week during the shutdown.

Aviation industry association Airlines for America reported that more than 5 million travelers have experienced flight delays or cancellations since the shutdown began on October 1.

With the federal government shutdown stretched beyond a month, consumers displayed increasing anxiety about its potential economic fallout. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey shows confidence plunging in November to a three-year low, down 6 percent from the previous month and nearly 30 percent from a year earlier.

The International Monetary Fund announced at a press briefing on Thursday that it now expects US fourth-quarter GDP growth to fall below its earlier forecast of 1.9 percent, in consideration of the government shutdown, as well as the combination of tariffs and broader policy uncertainties.