Japan's rising provocations over Taiwan imperils ties with China

Editor's note: Xu Ying is a Beijing-based international affairs commentator for CGTN. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN. 

Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has chosen to test the political bedrock of China-Japan relations at a delicate moment for the region. Her recent remarks on Taiwan – disruptive in substance – have triggered one of the swiftest and most multidimensional responses from Beijing in years, actions that reflect China's resolve to defend its core interests.

A calibrated response

Beijing's reaction has unfolded in calibrated layers, each signaling growing seriousness.

At the diplomatic level, China summoned Japanese Ambassador Kenji Kanasugi, warning that Takaichi's words are "extremely wrong and dangerous," and stressing that "all consequences shall be borne by the Japanese side." Summoning a foreign envoy – especially at the vice-ministerial level – is a rare step, underscoring the gravity with which Beijing views the matter.

Publicly, the Chinese Foreign Ministry reiterated the severity of the issue in successive press briefings, stressing that Takaichi's comments violate the political commitments embedded in the four China-Japan political documents and undermine the most basic norms governing international relations.

In the realm of public discourse, major Chinese media outlets issued forceful commentaries, characterizing Takaichi's rhetoric as a "provocation regarding the Taiwan question since Japan's defeat in 1945." These analyses pointedly linked her statements to historical patterns of militarism – an analogy that resonates strongly across Asia.

Taken together, these actions reflect an unequivocal affirmation that Japan has crossed a line touching on China's core sovereignty and historical memory.

Roots of Beijing's reaction

China's response is rooted in three deep strategic considerations.

Beijing views Takaichi's remarks as a deliberate attempt to normalize a path for Japan's military involvement in the Taiwan issue – long considered a hypothetical scenario but now increasingly voiced in Tokyo's political mainstream. By refusing to treat the comments as mere "domestic political rhetoric," China aims to prevent a dangerous precedent from taking root.

Then there is the historical dimension. References to Japan's wartime justifications for external aggression – often framed in past eras as "existential threats" or "national crises" – are echoing uncomfortably once again. China's response reflects not only its own experience, but a broader regional vigilance against any move that signals a return to strategic adventurism.

Finally, by stating that China's red line is non-negotiable, Beijing underscores that any attempt to interfere in the Taiwan issue will incur severe costs. The language of "consequences" and "dangerous provocation" serves both as deterrence and a clear message: China will not allow foundational matters of sovereignty to be instrumentalized by external actors.

The strategic risks ahead

Looking forward, several dynamics suggest that the tensions may worsen.

Takaichi's comments have damaged the political foundation of bilateral ties. Without a meaningful retraction or corrective move from Tokyo, high-level exchanges may stall, and trust erode further.

Chinese countermeasures may broaden. Beyond diplomatic pressure, Beijing retains space to respond through economic, political, and security channels, should Japan continue down the current path.

Japan's domestic politics remains volatile. Despite efforts to project strength, Takaichi faces skepticism within Japan itself. Opposition parties have warned that escalating rhetoric does not enhance deterrence – it simply inflames regional anxiety.

Regional security tensions could intensify. Japan's push to expand defense spending to two percent of GDP, loosen arms export restrictions, and deepen military coordination under the pretext of a "China threat" risks feeding a cycle of strategic mistrust in East Asia. If Tokyo allows Taiwan-related rhetoric to justify such shifts, regional security dilemmas will deepen.

The trajectory of this crisis hinges on two key uncertainties: Japan's next step and the American influence.

Should Tokyo retract or temper Takaichi's statements, the diplomatic temperature may cool down. But if Japan continues to advance policies premised on potential intervention in the Taiwan Straits, Beijing's response will inevitably escalate.

As Japan's key security ally, Washington's posture will shape Tokyo's decision-making. If the U.S. tacitly encourages Japan to harden its stance, regional tensions will deepen. If it instead urges restraint in the interest of regional stability, the crisis could be contained.

A warning for the region

Sanae Takaichi's remarks have pushed China-Japan relations to a dangerous crossroads. For Beijing, defending territorial integrity is not a matter of political choice but a constitutional, historical, and strategic necessity. Its response is a clear signal that any attempt – explicit or implied – to alter the status quo on Taiwan will be met with firm resistance.

The burden now lies with Tokyo: whether to escalate confrontation under the illusion of deterrence, or to correct course and return to the commitments that have underpinned decades of relative stability in East Asia.

What is at stake is not merely bilateral diplomacy, but the peace and stability of an entire region that cannot afford miscalculations born of domestic politics or ideological ambition.

In the final analysis, any discussion of China-Japan relations must not overlook the sentiments of the Chinese people, whose collective memory and sense of justice form an undeniable part of the region's political reality.

Across generations, the Chinese public has carried a deep awareness of history – its wounds, its lessons, and its warnings. Today, that sentiment is rising with a force that cannot be ignored.

For many, the moment has come to settle accounts with distortions of the past and to ensure that provocations touching upon China's sovereignty are met with clarity and resolve. This is a strong reminder that durable peace in East Asia requires genuine respect for historical truth and for the will of more than a billion people who expect their nation's core interests – and its dignity – to be defended without hesitation.

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