News analysis: How Japan's internal crisis shapes Takaichi's provocative gamble

When Japan's new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi delivered a string of provocative remarks on Taiwan, many outside observers asked the same question: Why would a new leader risk inflaming tensions with China so early in her tenure?

The answer, increasingly, lies within Japan itself.

For years, the country has faced stagnant growth, rising inequality, and declining public confidence. In 2025, those pressures reached a breaking point. Confronted with U.S. tariff measures, Tokyo opted for quiet concessions, leaving domestic industries exposed. In the first half of this year, all seven of Japan's major automakers reported declining profits for the first time since 2020, totaling nearly $10 billion in losses. Former Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Masazumi Wakatabe also warned of a sharp contraction in GDP.

Economic strain has translated into visible societal impacts. Soaring food prices prompted debates over rice scarcity, while increased bear incidents, linked to habitat encroachment and weakened rural management, heightened public anxiety. Daily insecurity about whether families can afford meals or safely move in their communities has become a political factor.

Externalizing domestic contradictions

Amid these pressures, Japan's political establishment – particularly the right wing – has turned to a familiar strategy: externalizing domestic contradictions. Taiwan-related rhetoric is an attempt to rally conservative voters and divert attention from internal challenges.

Today's political climate is particularly fertile soil for such maneuvering. The Japanese public has grown skeptical of rotating "short-lived" prime ministers, while campaign models have ossified. Denial of wartime history and anti-foreign populism have become low-cost, high-mobilization instruments on the campaign trail. The result is a political ecosystem where extreme rhetoric does not penalize but energizes certain constituencies.

The mirage of the U.S.-Japan alliance

Another layer of Japan's internal dilemma is its deep reliance on the U.S.-Japan alliance, which Japanese right-wing politicians often treat as a strategic guarantee.

After Takaichi said the Chinese mainland's "use of force on Taiwan" could constitute a "survival-threatening situation" for Japan, some ultra-conservatives awaited American endorsement, only to encounter disillusionment when U.S. President Donald Trump dismissed backing her position.

Trump appeared to "defend China," as described by the Daily Mail, during an interview with Fox News, when the host raised Takaichi's recent claims on Taiwan and asked whether China was "not our friend." Trump pushed back, saying, "A lot of our allies are not friends either."

This episode revealed a lingering political fantasy among Japan's far right: that the U.S. will always underwrite Japanese adventurism in the region. Reality is proving otherwise.

In this case, Takaichi's provocations are not merely ideological but are symptoms of a political system wrestling with profound domestic strain. But history has shown that when Japan uses foreign policy to camouflage internal weakness, the consequences can reverberate far beyond its borders.