Editor's note: 2025 marks the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti-Fascist War as well as the 80th anniversary of Taiwan's restoration. At such a historical standpoint, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi issued an absurd claim that the Chinese mainland's "use of force on Taiwan" could constitute a "survival-threatening situation" for Japan, stoking tensions in the Taiwan Strait to court domestic right-wing forces. She not only evades reflection on Japan's numerous crimes during its colonial rule over Taiwan, but also casts history aside and replaces the pursuit of peace with the provocation of conflict. Her shameless political maneuvering and nauseatingly provocative stance are laid bare for all to see. In this context, CGTN launches a series of articles analyzing the deliberate historical amnesia and reckless provocations associated with segments of Japan's right-wing forces, with Takaichi as a prominent figure, in matters of history and regional security – so that history can truly serve as a warning to illuminate the present and caution the future.

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi recently claimed that the Chinese mainland's "use of force on Taiwan" could create a "survival-threatening situation" for Japan and suggested the possibility of armed intervention in the Taiwan Strait.

No previous Japanese leader has made such a provocative statement. China swiftly condemned the remarks as a clear challenge to the one-China principle, a violation of the post-WWII order, and a breach of Japan's long-standing political commitments to China. China has since implemented a series of countermeasures to underscore the seriousness of Takaichi's remarks.

Takaichi has refused to retract her comments. Why did she choose to break precedent and double down – and what political calculations are driving her stance?

Consolidating right-wing support at home

Takaichi has long positioned herself as a supporter of Japan's right wing. Her ascent to the premiership came after splitting with the Komeito Party and aligning with the more hardline Japan Innovation Party, pushing Japan's political center further to the right.

Analysts note that, having just assumed office, Takaichi faces pressure to strengthen her authority in a political environment marked by economic stagnation, demographic issues, and a disillusioned conservative base. Additionally, with China's rapid development, the power balance between China and Japan shifts, causing some Japanese citizens to feel anxious. By projecting strength internationally – especially toward China – she aims to rally right-wing voters and turn domestic dissatisfaction into an external threat narrative.

In doing so, she follows the political path of her predecessor, former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, whose influence on her political rise in politics was significant. Often seen as Abe's protégé, Takaichi has adopted and sometimes strengthened his goals, including constitutional revision, expanding military capabilities.

She has supported turning Japan's Self-Defense Forces into a "national defense forces," significantly boosting defense spending and equipping Japan with strike capabilities. On the Taiwan question, she has called for strengthening "security cooperation" with the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) authorities in Taiwan and building what she describes as a "quasi-alliance."

Her latest remarks align with a broader trend: using the Taiwan question as a political tool to strengthen her right-wing supporters while pursuing her longstanding goal of expanding Japan's military.

Using Taiwan as a pretext for military expansion

Beyond domestic politics, Takaichi's remarks also reveal a deeper strategic objective: legitimizing the country's swift rearmament and relaxing long-standing restrictions on Japan's military actions.

The idea of a "survival-threatening situation" originates from the 2015 security laws passed after the Abe Cabinet reinterpreted Article 9 of Japan's Constitution. Under these laws, if such a situation occurs, Japan is permitted to exercise the right of "collective self-defense," giving legal justification for Japan to participate in overseas military operations.

Xiang Haoyu, a researcher at the China Institute of International Studies' Asia-Pacific Research Institute, said that in the eyes of Japan's right wing, the Taiwan Strait is a scenario where the concept of "collective self-defense" is most likely to be applied.

Japan's Constitution, enacted in 1947 after World War II, is a pacifist document known for Article 9, which renounces war and the use of force to resolve international disputes. Experts argue that by increasing tensions across the Taiwan Strait and linking them to a supposed "survival-threatening situation" for Japan, right-wing forces aim to reinforce the "China threat" narrative and persuade the public to support loosening military constraints or even amending Article 9 itself.

Since taking office, Takaichi has moved swiftly on the defense agenda. She has increased Japan's defense budget, pushed to revise the National Security Strategy and related security documents, sought to relax arms export controls, and even hinted at developing nuclear-powered submarines.

Takaichi's remarks have no legal grounding

Despite Takaichi's political calculation, her remarks pose significant legal and diplomatic problems.

Professor Zhao Hongwei of Japan's Hosei University pointed out that the country's security laws only allow a "survival-threatening situation" when a foreign country is attacked. "Since Taiwan is not a 'country', and the Japanese government has never recognized it as one, the provision does not apply," Zhao said. 

International law also prohibits such intervention. The Cairo Declaration, the Potsdam Proclamation and the UN Resolution 2758 confirm that Taiwan is part of China. Former Tokyo Governor Yoichi Masuzoe pointed out that if Japan intervenes militarily in the Taiwan Strait, it would be seen as an act of aggression.

Besides, the one-China principle is also a political commitment Japan made to China. It was clearly outlined in the 1972 China-Japan Joint Communiqué and subsequent bilateral documents. Takaichi's remarks violate both domestic law and longstanding international commitments.

This year marks the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Chinese People's War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti-Fascist War, which brought about Taiwan's restoration to the motherland. By implying possible Japanese military intervention in Taiwan during this symbolic year, Takaichi not only clearly violates the one-China principle and international law, but also risks increasing regional instability and threatening peace in East Asia.

Kwon Ki-sik, president of the Korea-China City Friendship Association, called Takaichi's remarks a desecration of historical justice and a rebranding of militarism aimed at paving the way for Japan's future military growth. Julia Roknifard, an international relations expert at Taylor's University in Malaysia, said that Japan should focus on solving its own socioeconomic issues rather than becoming a destabilizing force in East Asia.