Takaichi's Taiwan remarks risk Japan 'actively stepping into war,' scholars warn

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is under fire from Japanese scholars and media for recent provocative remarks regarding Taiwan, with critics warning that if Japan intervenes militarily, it would be seen as an act of aggression and would mean "Japan itself actively stepping into the war."

During a parliamentary hearing on November 7, Takaichi cited the so-called "survival-threatening situation" in the country's deeply divisive security legislation and linked it to Taiwan, suggesting Tokyo might treat the Taiwan question as grounds for military involvement.

Japanese experts say her comments are extremely dangerous, pose significant risks to Japan-China relations, and fundamentally negate Japan's pacifist Constitution.

'It would be Japan itself actively stepping into the war'

Takaichi's erroneous remarks are "extremely harmful," offering no security gains for Japan or its people while posing significant risks to Japan-China relations, Japanese scholar Yuki Izumikawa warned.

Izumikawa, a special research fellow from Okinawa University, called such comments "extremely serious" when made in the Diet, Japan's parliament.

"Japan and China are important neighbors with deep economic and cultural ties. If Takaichi's remarks damage bilateral relations or hinder exchanges, it would be a grave situation," he said.

Takaichi later claimed her comments were consistent with the government's long-standing position. Izumikawa dismissed this as "absurd," noting that previous governments have never stated that the Taiwan Strait could trigger Japan's right to collective self-defense.

"Former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe once said 'a Taiwan contingency is a Japan contingency,' but he made that comment in an online speech after leaving office, not in an official Diet session," he noted.

Izumikawa criticized Takaichi for stoking fears of a "Taiwan contingency," calling it inappropriate and dangerous.

He also stressed Taiwan's painful history under Japanese colonial rule after the unequal Treaty of Shimonoseki, which makes Japan's statements on Taiwan particularly sensitive for the Chinese people.

He recalled that the 1972 joint statement between Japan and China states that the Japanese government fully understands and respects the position of the Chinese government that Taiwan is an inalienable part of China's territory.

Izumikawa emphasized that the Taiwan question is China's internal affair. If Japan uses the pretext of a "survival crisis" to intervene with force, it would, from China's perspective, amount to an act of aggression.

He warned that any military conflict would severely impact Japan domestically, particularly islands like Okinawa, where the Self-Defense Forces and U.S. military have been increasing joint deployments and exercises.

"If conflict occurs, these areas would become battlefields. It cannot be said that they are dragged into war – it would be Japan itself actively stepping into the war. This is extremely dangerous," he warned.

'Takaichi as PM is a survival threat for Japan'

"Takaichi's very existence as prime minister is a survival-threatening situation for Japan," a recent editorial published by the Japanese newspaper Shakai Shimpo stated.

The editorial pointed out that Takaichi's policy intentions have become increasingly clear: she disregards people's livelihoods, follows the footsteps of the United States blindly, and attempts to vigorously boost military expansion.

The editorial said that Takaichi's policy speech was filled with hawkish policies, such as achieving the defense spending goal ahead of schedule, establishing a new national intelligence bureau, and relaxing arms export rules, which can only be seen as a deliberate attempt to escalate tensions.

Since Takaichi was elected prime minister, her political base has not been solid. The ruling coalition formed by her Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party holds less than half the seats in both houses of the Diet, Japan's parliament, according to the editorial.

Takaichi should have chosen to "hide her sharp edge" and listen to the opinions of the opposition parties, but it is clear that she chose to consolidate her base by highlighting her right-wing stance, according to the Shakai Shimpo.

'A political calculation at play'

Professor Emeritus Atsushi Koketsu of Japan's Yamaguchi University believes that Takaichi's remarks fundamentally negate Japan's path of development as a peaceful nation in accordance with its pacifist Constitution, and should be strongly criticized.

There is clearly a political calculation at play, where Takaichi aims to consolidate her support base by consistently hyping the "China threat theory," Koketsu said, adding that making blatant remarks on Taiwan that constitute interference in China's internal affairs is an intolerable and egregious act.

"For Japan's security, diplomacy and economy, establishing a mutually beneficial relationship with China should be the top priority," Koketsu said.

He stressed that Japan should, based on the one-China principle agreed upon during the normalization of diplomatic relations between the two countries, strive to build a peaceful relationship with China.

'A mistake that should be retracted'

Noriyuki Kawamura, emeritus professor at Nagoya University of Foreign Studies and vice president of the Japan-China Relations Society, wrote an article stating that Takaichi's remarks on Taiwan have broken with previous Japanese administrations, interfered in China's internal affairs, and trampled on the one-China principle.

Yoichi Jomaru, a former journalist with Asahi Shimbun, said that the Takaichi administration attempted to downplay the issue by claiming that her remarks were no different from the government's longstanding view, but her remarks on Taiwan were extremely rash.

Making such a statement was itself a mistake and should be retracted as soon as possible, said Jomaru.

(With input from Xinhua)

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