Editor's note: Cai Guiquan is an associate research fellow at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, China's Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM). This article has been translated from Chinese and edited for brevity and clarity. It reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

Recently, provocative remarks and actions by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi relating to China's domestic affairs have gravely violated the one-China principle and the principles outlined in the four important political documents between China and Japan. 

These moves have seriously damaged the political foundation of Sino-Japanese relations and undermined overall stability, while further transmitting real risks into the broader Asian regional cooperation and global economic development. 

In terms of economic scale, China and Japan, the world's second- and fourth-largest economies, accounted for over 38 percent of Asia's total trade volume in 2024, with their economic and trade linkages deeply embedded in both regional industrial chains and global trade networks. The economic and trade volatility triggered by Japan's provocations not only disrupts the bilateral trade order but also spreads through the region's tightly knit industrial chains to neighboring countries, thus indirectly weighing on global economic and trade stability. 

As a major participant in Asian cooperation and the global multilateral trading system, Japan has failed to correct its conduct promptly and instead has maintained a confrontational posture. This has created enormous risks for economic cooperation within the region and across the globe, whether in trade expectations, confidence in industrial-chain collaboration, or trust in rules-based arrangements. If this trajectory persists, it will impede regional economic integration and hinder the steady growth of the global economy.

I. Disrupting trade expectations

In recent years, the global trading system has been undergoing a profound transformation. Amid changes of a magnitude not seen in a century, Asia has maintained strategic stability and emerged as a key stabilizer of global trade growth. In 2024, intra-regional trade in Asia accounted for nearly 40 percent of global trade, and the dividends of regional cooperation have continued to bolster global economic resilience. 

From a perspective of economic interdependence, ASEAN's combined trade with China and Japan constitutes 30.9 percent of its total foreign trade, while the Republic of Korea's combined trade with China, Japan, and ASEAN exceeds 40 percent. This highly interdependent economic and trade structure means that any disruption in China-Japan relations caused by Japan's actions will inevitably impact the business expectations and decision-making of market players across the region. This heightens uncertainty in corporate production planning, reduces the efficiency of trade order fulfillment, and ultimately disrupts regional economic stability and undermines the steady growth of global trade.

II. Undermining industrial-chain collaboration

Against a backdrop of highly specialized industrial chains, Asia has formed a tightly knit network of collaboration that supports the region's industrial upgrading and plays a critical role in the development of strategic emerging industries worldwide. Among these, China and Japan's economic and trade linkages in key industrial sectors, which cover core categories such as semiconductor materials and precision automotive components, constitute essential pillars for many strategic emerging industries worldwide and are integral to the coordinated functioning of regional industrial chains. 

However, Japan's erroneous statements and actions have shattered these stable expectations of constructive cooperation. This not only directly hampers Asia's industrial coordination but also disrupts the smooth integration of upstream and downstream segments of global supply chains, constraining the release of global industrial growth momentum.

III. Eroding trust in rules

The vitality of regional cooperation and the global multilateral trading system rests on the primacy of rules and the foundation of mutual trust. Takaichi's provocative rhetoric and right-wing actions amount to a disregard for the core rules governing regional cooperation and the global multilateral trade order. Such behavior continually erodes the trust essential for regional collaboration and directly weakens the dynamism of the global multilateral trading system, ultimately impeding the full realization of the economic growth potential worldwide.

On the one hand, the upgrading of regional cooperation and the optimization of global trade rules are being hindered. In recent years, Asian countries have effectively reduced regional economic and trade costs through cooperation initiatives such as streamlining customs procedures and harmonizing product standards, offering valuable references for the improvement of global trade rules. As major economies in the region, China and Japan's dialogues on services trade alignment, digital economy collaboration, and mutual recognition of standards in key sectors have been crucial drivers for advancing higher-quality regional cooperation and contributing to the upgrading of global rule-making. However, tensions in bilateral relations stemming from Japan's actions have brought cooperation in these areas to a standstill. This not only hampers the deepening of regional cooperation but also deprives the optimization of global trade rules of essential regional practice, creating tangible barriers to improving global trade efficiency.

On the other hand, a widening "trust deficit" is generating chain-reaction risks for both regional and global economic and trade cooperation. Takaichi has repeatedly made remarks denying Japan's history of aggression and legitimizing militarism. She has also pursued constitutional revision, military expansion, and the acquisition of the capability to strike enemy bases. Such actions are widely regarded across the region as dangerous signals of a return to Japan's old path of military expansion. 

China and the Republic of Korea, both victims of World War II, remain highly alert to Japan's historical revisionism and attempts to loosen military constraints. Most ASEAN members, which also suffered Japanese invasion during the war, still carry deep scars and broad concerns that Japan may prioritize geopolitical confrontation over economic cooperation. This will threaten the stability of regional cooperation frameworks, the continuity of global supply chains, and multilateral cooperation dividends. Meanwhile, a weakening of confidence in regional cooperation and a decline in coordination efficiency will not only impair Asia's economic and trade integration but also erode the stability and resilience of global industrial and supply chains, constraining the potential for coordinated global economic growth.

Conclusion

Asia today is deeply integrated with the global economy, and the outcomes of regional cooperation translate directly into momentum for global growth. Japan's provocative behavior threatens not only regional stability but also represents a setback for the global order. In an era of deeply embedded global supply chains and highly interdependent national interests, should Japan persist in its erroneous rhetoric, indulge right-wing actions, and adopt a confrontational approach that undermines the foundations of China-Japan cooperation or fractures regional industrial chains, it will ultimately become the first casualty of an increasingly isolated global economy. 

Only when Japan returns to the original commitment to cooperation and abandons confrontation can regional cooperation truly become a powerful engine that benefits more countries and supports the sustainable development of the global economy.