Japan presses ahead with military expansion near China's Taiwan

Japan is strengthening its military presence across the Ryukyu island chain, advancing a series of expansion steps that signal a clear shift away from the postwar security limits that once defined its defense strategy.

The trend has accelerated under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, whose provocative comments on China's Taiwan region have faced international criticism as Japan's right-wing forces push to reinterpret Japan's pacifist constitution.

The southwest islands have undergone a sweeping transformation over the past decade, with Tokyo pouring vast sums into fortifying remote outposts. Military experts say this has turned the region into a heavily militarized belt that Tokyo considers its frontline in a so-called "Taiwan contingency."

On November 23, Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi visited Okinawa to inspect Self-Defense Forces units on Ishigaki and Yonaguni, the islands closest to the Taiwan region at just 110 kilometers away. Koizumi said deployment of a new unit equipped with the Type-03 medium-range surface-to-air missile system on Yonaguni is progressing rapidly. The missile system is central to Tokyo's plan to build an integrated air defense, anti-ship, and electronic warfare network stretching across the southwest islands.

Local resistance remains strong. Residents on Yonaguni have long opposed missile deployments, warning that their island is being turned into a military target rather than made safer. Many say the buildup is a step-by-step march toward war.

Japan's pivot towards the southwest began in 2010 when Tokyo shifted defense priorities toward mobility and rapid response in the Ryukyu Islands. Since then, new bases with anti-air and anti-ship missile units have been built on Amami Oshima and Miyako, and a coastal surveillance unit was established on Yonaguni in 2016. In 2022, Japan's National Defense Strategy explicitly redefined "counterstrike capability" to include the ability to conduct pre-emptive attacks on enemy bases.

The buildup is set to accelerate. In 2023, Japan opened a new base on Ishigaki, and by March 2026, the deployment of the Type-03 missile on Yonaguni is scheduled to be finished. By 2027, the 15th Brigade in Okinawa will be upgraded to a division with 4,000 troops, shifting its mission from local defense to active island operations.

The Japanese newspaper Yomiuri Shimbun notes that the growing scale of offensive-capable weapons, including a recent sea test of an electromagnetic railgun, reflects a military increasingly preparing for long-range strike roles.

Further details of Japan's preparations have also emerged. Tokyo is allocating part of its defense budget to enhance overall "security resilience," including upgrades to dual-use ports, expanding wartime legal frameworks for prisoner handling, and even researching so-called universal plasma, China Media Group reported.

Lu Hao, a research fellow at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences' Institute of Japanese Studies, told CMG that in reality, Japan's military preparations are becoming increasingly extensive and combat-focused, clearly viewing a so-called "Taiwan contingency" as something that could happen at any moment, and making thorough, detailed preparations accordingly.

The shift marks a major break from Japan's long-standing exclusively defensive principle grounded in its pacifist constitution. China has repeatedly criticized Japan for easing its self-imposed restrictions, increasing defense budgets for more than a decade and relaxing arms export rules to permit the transfer of lethal weapons.