The diplomatic costs Takaichi incurs for Japan

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Over the weekend, responding to Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's accusation that Chinese warplanes had directed radars onto Japanese fighter jets in open waters southeast of Okinawa Island, a Chinese military spokesperson revealed that China's Liaoning aircraft carrier formation was approached and harassed by Japanese warplanes during a recent regular training in the far seas. 

China's foreign ministry said China does not accept the so-called protest from the Japanese side and rejected it on the spot, lodging counter-protests in both Beijing and Tokyo. 

Takaichi is simply putting on a show: what she provided is a deliberate piece of political staging, portraying Japan as the victim with the purpose of dragging other nations into Japan's disputes with its neighbor.

Yet, with each provocative utterance, Takaichi is not rallying a coalition; she is incurring steep and accumulating diplomatic costs for the nation she claims to defend.

Nowhere have such costs been more apparent than in China–Japan relations. Takaichi's erroneous remarks that a "Chinese attack on Taiwan" could constitute a "survival-threatening situation" for Japan not only violated international law, but also shredded the political foundation and delicate understandings that have underpinned decades of China-Japan diplomacy.

In doing so, Takaichi is the one who dismantled the foundation for economic cooperation and strategic stability in China-Japan relations. The cost she incurred is a relationship locked in a downward spiral of hostility, with Japan's economic and security interests directly in the line of fire.

Takaichi’s claim on Dokdo, called Takeshima in Japan, has produced similar consequences for Japan's relations with the Republic of Korea (ROK). People in the ROK see Japan's territorial claims to the islets as a denial of colonial history as ROK contends that Dokdo was the first territory that was forcibly occupied by Imperial Japan. With her insistence that Dokdo is Japanese territory historically and under international law, Takaichi is jeopardizing Japan's relations with yet another of its neighbors, for the territorial dispute surrounding the islets is deeply emotional for many Koreans in that it evokes a long history of colonial occupation and unresolved questions of justice.

And yet, for all the volatility that Takaichi injects into Japan's relations with China and the Republic of Korea, perhaps the most striking consequence of her rhetoric is the lack of direct support — sometimes even visible discomfort — from Japan's closest allies.

Caught in the diplomatic row Japan created for itself with its neighbors, Washington and Canberra said they are committed to cooperating with Japan, but thus far they have shown little enthusiasm for endorsing Takaichi's remarks. Visiting Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles said in Tokyo over the weekend that Australia does "not want to see any change to the status quo across the Taiwan Straits," adding that China is his country's largest trading partner and he wants to have productive relations with Beijing.

Officials in Washington and Canberra are acutely aware that the stability of the Indo-Pacific depends on avoiding escalation. What they want is predictability; Takaichi's pronouncements create precisely the opposite.

Takaichi's remarks, which whitewash Japan's war crime history and signal a dangerous comeback of militarism, ignite painful memories across Asia. For China, the Republic of Korea, and Southeast Asian nations, this is not abstract diplomacy; it recalls the visceral suffering inflicted by Japanese militarism during WWII. When the top Japanese politician speaks in a manner that legitimizes that past, it is heard as a chilling echo.

Plus, her actions are a direct threat to regional peace and stability. Asia has been able to maintain decades of strong growth and prosperity because of the relative peace the region has been enjoying. People in that region aspire for closer economic integration and people-to-people exchanges, not manufactured crises that could risk throwing decades of hard work into vapor.

In the end, it's regrettable that the Japanese citizens, not political provocateurs, have to bear the brunt of these diplomatic costs. Irresponsible rhetoric invites economic uncertainty, heightens military risks, and strains civil communications and dialogues, overlooking the countless Japanese local governments, businesses, and academics, among others, and their efforts in building links in the economy, culture, education, and other areas.

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