Foreign institutions raise forecasts for China's economic growth rate

As the year 2025 approaches its end, an increasing number of international organizations and financial institutions have upgraded their forecasts regarding China's economy.

Financial heavyweight Goldman Sachs released a research report in late November, in which it upgraded its prediction for China's 2025 real GDP growth from 4.9 percent to 5 percent. China's real export growth is expected to increase by 5 percent to 6 percent annually over the next few years, up from a previous forecast of just 2 percent to 3 percent, as Chinese goods gain global market share, Goldman Sachs researchers wrote in their report.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) on December 2 revised its China's GDP forecast for 2025 from 4.9 to 5 percent. This adjustment highlights the OECD's recognition of China as a key stabilizer for global growth.

The OECD noted that China's fiscal policy has been expansionary with the introduction of a number of measures to support incomes and boost consumption, in addition to the trade-in program for cars and household appliances.

Multiple foreign institutions have also voiced confidence in China's policy toolkit. Xiong Yi, chief China economist at Deutsche Bank, believes China's intensification of its fiscal policy, including a new policy-based financial instrument worth 500 billion yuan ($70.67 billion), is likely to provide strong support for domestic demand in both the fourth quarter and early 2026.

Morgan Stanley, in its latest research report, emphasized that China's economy will grow moderately in 2026, supported by targeted policy easing, gradual economic rebalancing, and an anti-inflation campaign.

Moreover, the BRICS New Development Bank announced on December 5 that it has recently issued a 3-year Panda bond with a scale of 3 billion yuan ($ 429 million) in the interbank bond market in China. After this issuance, the total amount of Panda bonds issued by the New Development Bank in China will reach 78.5 billion yuan ($11.21 billion).

Stable operation, solid progress in high-quality development, and inherent strengths of strong resilience and great potential -- none of these fundamentals have changed, a spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics said, citing the overall performance of the nation's economy.

(With input from Xinhua)