World Bank raises China's 2025 growth forecast by 0.4 percentage points

The World Bank on Thursday in Beijing released its latest China Economic Update, wherein it raised its 2025 economic growth forecast for the world's second-largest economy by 0.4 percentage points to 4.9 percent. The forecast for 2026 was also raised, to 4.4 percent as compared to the previous July estimate of 4.0 percent.

The World Bank said that accommodative fiscal and monetary policies have supported domestic consumption and investment, while simultaneously, demand from developing countries has sustained exports.

"China's growth in the coming years will depend more on domestic demand," said Mara Warwick, World Bank division director for China, Mongolia and Korea. "In addition to short-term fiscal stimulus, advancing structural reforms of the social protection system and creating a more predictable environment for businesses can help boost confidence and lay the groundwork for resilient, sustainable growth, " Warwick added.

The World Bank's latest update comes just a day after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its own forecast for China's economic growth in 2025 to 5 percent, up by 0.2 percentage points from its previous estimate in October.

The IMF also lifted its China growth projection for 2026 to 4.5 percent, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the October forecast.

It recognized China's recent moves to bolster consumption-led growth, including expansionary fiscal policies, monetary easing, and targeted steps to support consumption and the property sector. The statement added that a more forceful policy package would provide additional lift to China's GDP.

(Cover: A view of Shanghai, China, December 9, 2025. /VCG)