Behind China's $1 trillion-plus trade surplus: Diversified exports, expanding imports

China's goods trade surplus with the world has surpassed $1 trillion this year for the first time, signaling an upbeat momentum against the backdrop of a nearly year-long tariff negotiations between China and the United States.

China's foreign trade edged up in the first 11 months of 2025, with the total merchandise trade rising 3.6 percent year-on-year to 41.21 trillion yuan ($5.83 trillion), according to data released by the General Administration of Customs (GAC) on Monday.

The data showed during the first 11 months, ASEAN remained China's largest trading partner, with total bilateral trade surging 8.5 percent year on year to 6.82 trillion yuan, accounting for 16.6 percent of the country's total foreign trade. It was followed by the European Union, with bilateral trade rising 5.4 percent year on year to 5.37 trillion yuan. Meanwhile, China's trade with the U.S., its third-largest trading partner, fell 16.9 percent in the first 11 months to 3.69 trillion yuan.

Experts said that the upbeat data underscored the competitiveness and resilience of China's foreign trade sector.

Diversified exports

Zhang Monan, a researcher at the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, told China Media Group that China is not only the largest trade power globally but also the world's largest manufacturing power.

Noting China ranks first or near top in most of the 504 industrial products globally, Zhang said the country's complete industrial structure and supply chain system are the key pillars supporting the resilience of China's trade growth in the face of a complex international environment.

Morgan Stanley Economists predict that by 2030, China's share in global goods exports will increase from about 15 percent to 16.5 percent, driven by China's leading position in advanced manufacturing.

Zhang also noted another reason that China has actively adjusted its trade structure and promoted trade diversification after years of global trade protectionism and trade frictions.

Emerging markets have become a significant source of growth and a key engine for expansion, Zhang said, adding that the growth in China's trade with ASEAN and the EU has helped strengthen the overall resilience of China's foreign trade.

Feng Lin, senior analyst at Dongfang Jincheng Research and Development Department, pointed out another reason behind upbeat data.

There has been a significant global increase in AI investment this year, and China's manufacturing transformation and upgrade have had visible results, driving continuous growth in exports of chips and new energy vehicles, which are crucial to supporting overall export performance.

Data speaks. In the first 11 months of the year, China exported integrated circuits worth 1.29 trillion yuan, a 25.6 percent increase, and automobiles worth 896.91 billion yuan, up 17.6 percent.

Lower prices of major imported commodities also played a significant role in boosting the surplus. Research by China Merchants Securities analyst Zhang Jingjing showed that global prices for crude oil, coal and other key commodities fell in 2025, causing China's import bill to grow more slowly even as import volumes increased, thereby inadvertently widening the surplus.

For example, in the first 11 months, China imported 1.139 billion tonnes of iron ore, up 1.4 percent, with the average price down 9.4 percent, GAC data showed.

Expanding imports

Along with booming export, China has also in recent years introduced measures to expand imports to transform China's vast domestic market into a globally shared marketplace.

In November, the Ministry of Commerce launched the event of "Big Market for All: Export to China" in Shanghai, underscoring China's commitment to opening up wider and sharing its vast market with the rest of the world.

Besides, starting from December 1, 2024, China has fully implemented zero-tariff treatment for all goods for the least developed countries, including 33 African nations. In June 2025, China expanded the zero-tariff policy to include all 53 African countries with which it has diplomatic relations.

Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao recently stated that China aims to promote balanced development of imports and exports, enhance efforts to expand imports, and meet both the needs of industrial transformation and the well-being of the people.

Wei Hao, associate dean of Beijing Normal University Business School, said that China actively expanding imports not only strengthens the economies of other countries by expanding their exports to China, but also injects new momentum into global economic recovery and growth.