Negotiations on a free trade agreement between China and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have spanned more than 20 years. With China's top diplomat Wang Yi wrapping up a three-nation visit to the Middle East – two of them Gulf states, questions are growing over whether the deal could finally be reached soon.

The Chinese foreign minister stressed the urgent need for the agreement, especially at a time when "protectionism is on the rise" and free trade is "under strain."

"Conditions are now basically in place, making it time to take the final decisive step," Wang said when meeting with Secretary General of the GCC Jasem Mohamed Albudaiwi in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on Sunday.

The remarks marked the first time a Chinese official has said the deal is in its final stage.

Wang's trip began in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), followed by Saudi Arabia and Jordan. During talks with UAE Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Wang urged the Emirates to play an active role in promoting "the early completion of the negotiations" on the agreement.

Two decades of talks

China and the GCC – which consists of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE – announced the framework for a free trade agreement in 2004.

It was one of the first regional free trade deals China pursued, aimed at facilitating trade in goods and services, as well as investment.

Negotiations went through multiple rounds between 2004 and 2009. By 2009, the two sides had agreed on market access for about 97 percent of goods.

Talks then stalled, with the pause lasting six years.

Negotiations resumed in 2016, and as both sides sought to accelerate the process, delegations met four times that year, but were still unable to finalize an agreement.

The most recent meeting took place last October in Guangzhou, marking the 11th round of talks. According to the released readout, the two sides reached consensus on multiple key terms.

"A free trade agreement would reduce barriers and give more predictability for business on both sides," said Amer Al-Fakhoury, an international law professor at the American University in the Emirates.

"For China, the GCC is a key partner for energy, trade routes and long-term market access. And for the Gulf states, China is one of the world's largest markets and a major driver of global growth."

In 2004, China was the GCC's third-largest trading partner, with bilateral trade totaling $24.7 billion. By 2020, China had become the bloc's largest trading partner, surpassing the European Union, with trade valued at $180 billion.

Al-Fakhoury said it is natural for a six-nation bloc to take time to finalize a deal with China.

"This should not be seen as a failure," he told CGTN.

"It reflects the complexities of aligning six GCC economies with China. A free trade agreement is not only about tariffs. It involves standards, services, investment tools and more."

Closer to a deal?

While crude oil still accounts for a significant portion of trade between China and the GCC, the Gulf's exports to China are diversifying into non-oil goods, including petrochemical products, high-tech items, aerospace and green development.

"This trend not only supports the Gulf's agenda of economic transformation, but also reinforces China's position as a long-term development partner. Such cooperation would upgrade the level of strategic partnership and help build a more balanced relationship grounded in innovation and shared development," Hasan Abdullah Al-Dajah, associate professor of political science at Al Hussein Bin Talal University in Jordan, told The Paper.

As Gulf states look to diversify their economies away from reliance on hydrocarbon exports, leaders within the bloc have aligned their national development interests with the China-proposed Belt and Road Initiative. However, while the six Gulf countries negotiate collectively, divergence in both domestic and foreign policy priorities remains.

For example, Saudi Arabia, the most populous country within the bloc, is more focused on becoming an industrial powerhouse and utilizing its own workforce. Free entry of lower-cost Chinese products could conflict with its domestic industrial agenda.

Meanwhile, the UAE does not share the same concern, as about 88 percent of its population are foreign workers.

Analysts also note that closer ties with China could expose Gulf states to potential consequences from U.S. policies amid rising competition between the world's largest and second-largest economies.

"Given the close cooperation between the U.S. and the GCC around security and defense, an FTA announcement with China could be seen as a provocation to Washington," commented Lillian Aronson, advisor to the president at the Hungarian Institute of International Affairs, in a recent op-ed.

Wang reiterated China's commitment to mutual respect with the Gulf states in an interview with Chinese media after his Middle East trip.

"Major countries should walk alongside Middle Eastern nations on their development path – neither absent nor overstepping," Wang stressed.

With the Gulf states' leaders calling China a trusted partner and rhetoric emphasizing a pivot eastward to seek new engines for economic growth, how close are we to a free trade deal? We shall see.

Li Zhao is a Middle East reporter for China Media Group. She can be reached at li.zhao@cgtn.com