U.S. arms sales to Taiwan are draining not strengthening the island

Editor's note: Xu Xiaoquan is an associate researcher from the Institute of Taiwan Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily those of CGTN. It has been translated from Chinese and edited for clarity.

The United States recently approved arms sales to Taiwan region reportedly worth over $11 billion – the largest U.S. weapons package ever for the island. At the same time, the U.S. House of Representatives passed its version of the National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2026, which includes $1 billion in aid for the so-called Taiwan Security Cooperation Initiative. Rather than strengthening Taiwan's security, these measures will further drain the island, while the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) authorities' "pursuit of independence" by rejecting reunification is doomed to fail.

Arming Taiwan, draining its capacity

In recent years, Washington has increasingly defined China as its primary strategic competitor and has intensified its efforts to use Taiwan region to contain China, mobilizing allies to carry out comprehensive containment and suppression of the mainland.

As the mainland's overall strength continues to grow, the United States has found it increasingly difficult to obstruct China's reunification. The latest arms sales to Taiwan reportedly include systems such as the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) and related tactical missiles, loitering munitions, anti-tank weapons and self-propelled artillery. These systems are intended to enhance Taiwan region's ability to counter amphibious operations, highlighting Washington's intensified effort to arm the island. The goal is to turn Taiwan into a "porcupine," strengthen the DPP authorities' capacity to resist reunification by force and raise the cost of reunification for the Chinese mainland.

Yet the growing focus on arms sales and "asymmetric capabilities" also highlights a deeper reality: the likelihood of direct U.S. military intervention is steadily declining. Recent developments, reflected in the U.S. National Security Strategy and the destabilizing actions of certain actors in Japan, indicate that Washington is effectively recalibrating its posture in the Western Pacific. Going forward, the United States is likely to rely more heavily on its allies as front-line actors, pushing them to shoulder a greater share of the burden in efforts to contain China.

As the mainland's military capabilities continue to grow, Washington is increasingly unwilling and unable to bear the cost of a direct confrontation. Expanding arms sales to Taiwan has therefore become one of its primary tools for extracting political leverage. This suggests that U.S. military manipulation of the island will only deepen in the future. Beyond arms sales, Washington is binding Taiwan ever more closely to its so-called "Indo-Pacific Strategy," pushing the island toward greater dependency and subordination. For Taiwan, the consequences are immediate and severe. Much like the pressure on chip manufacturer TSMC to relocate production to the United States, these moves only accelerate the erosion of Taiwan's development capacity and industrial base, ultimately draining the island.

According to Taiwan media reports, the arms sale approved by the Trump administration, worth more than $11 billion, exceeds the total value of arms sales to the region during President Joe Biden's four-year term, placing a heavy strain on the island's public finances. If the DPP authorities continue to act as willing pawns, Washington will inevitably find new pretexts to demand ever higher "protection fees." This current package may be only the beginning. If the island's authorities do not halt this course, the region risks becoming a cash cow for the U.S. military-industrial complex.

Relying on the U.S. will not deliver independence

Driven by narrow partisan interests, the DPP authorities have repeatedly escalated provocations to advance a separatist agenda. Lai Ching-te has recently revived the "threat from the mainland" narrative, proposing to raise defense spending from 3 percent to 5 percent of GDP and introduce a special defense budget totaling NT$1.25 trillion (around $40 billion). He has also put forward plans for a so-called "Taiwan Shield" air defense system and promoted the idea of "universal militarization," aiming to tie Taiwanese society ever more tightly to a confrontational path.

Such attempts to pursue "independence" through military means or reliance on external forces run against the tide of history. They undermine the fundamental interests of the Chinese nation and are doomed to fail. No amount of arms purchases or political maneuvering can change the historical trajectory toward China's national reunification.

On the one hand, the Chinese mainland has long developed strong and reliable capabilities to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity. Since the Taiwan question emerged, the fundamental reality of a stronger mainland and a weaker Taiwan has remained unchanged. As the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation accelerates, the gap in comprehensive strength across the Taiwan Strait continues to widen. The mainland holds the initiative in cross-strait relations and enjoys clear advantages across political, military, economic and international domains. It possesses the determination, resolve and capability to defeat any separatist attempt or external interference.

At the same time, the international society broadly adheres to the one-China principle and China's pursuit of national reunification rests on solid grounds of justice and legitimacy. The U.S. strategy of attempting to use Taiwan region to contain China – lacking both moral foundation and broad backing – cannot derail China's path to reunification.

On the other hand, the DPP authorities' approach is increasingly at odds with public opinion in Taiwan and is bound to backfire. Their unlimited concessions to the U.S. and heavy spending on weapons come directly at the expense of economic development and people's livelihoods. An arms deal worth more than $11 billion will inevitably divert resources that could otherwise improve public welfare, placing a tangible burden on ordinary citizens.

More importantly, weapons cannot buy genuine security. The DPP authorities' fixation on military buildup is pushing Taiwan closer to danger rather than away from it. In recent years, growing skepticism toward the United States within Taiwanese society reflects deep unease over the risks created by the DPP's reliance on external forces and military confrontation. Allowing the U.S. to exploit Taiwan without restraint will only let it be drained, undermining the island's future and ultimately provoking a stronger backlash from an increasingly aware public.