U.S. strikes in Venezuela: A calculated move amidst strategic shifts and domestic ambitions

Earlier on Saturday, the United States launched a large-scale strike targeting both military and civilian sites across at least four Venezuelan states, including Caracas.

U.S. President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife had been captured and flown out of Venezuela. The Venezuelan government has yet to confirm the claim.

In response, Venezuelan Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez appeared in a video broadcast on state media, stating, "Today we clench our fist in defense of what is ours. Let us unite, for in the unity of the people we will find the strength to resist and triumph."

Timing: A calculated blend of media strategy and psychological signaling

While the world, still immersed in the joy of the New Year, was shocked to witness the U.S. strike on Venezuela, Sun Taiyi, associate professor of Political Science at Christopher Newport University, told CGTN that Trump's timing is rarely accidental and it reflects a calculated blend of media strategy and psychological signaling.

For instance, when Trump moved to announce a global tariff war in early 2025, he reportedly delayed the proclamation from April 1 to April 2 specifically to ensure his orders were not dismissed as an "April Fool's joke," Sun said.

Trump prioritizes absolute gravity in his directives, Sun said, citing another example – the recent U.S. operations in Nigeria, which were intentionally pushed to Christmas Day so that they could be framed as a "Christmas gift" to local militants. 

This current timing follows that same logic, Sun said. He added that by launching strikes just as the New Year holiday concludes, the administration avoids the holiday news lull and ensures that the media cycle is fully primed to treat the event as the first major news headline of the year.

Strategic objectives

Beyond the timing, Sun pointed out that the Trump administration is pursuing a multi-layered set of strategic objectives.

"Although the rhetoric often centers on combating drug trafficking, the reality is that Venezuela is not a primary source of drugs entering the U.S.," Sun explained. "These claims serve more as a domestic justification for broader intervention. Similarly, any military or political actions in Latin America are now being packaged as efforts to curb illegal migration. The real geopolitical target remains the left-wing governments of the region – specifically Venezuela and Cuba.”

Sun referred to the new U.S. National Security Strategy, which has shifted focus back to the Western Hemisphere, viewing Venezuela as a significant obstacle in America's "backyard" that must be neutralized.

Guo Cunhai, senior research fellow and director of the Center for Argentina Studies at the Institute of Latin American Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, also noted the evolving U.S. National Security Strategy across Trump's two terms.

During his first term, Trump focused on isolating the Venezuelan government, Guo said, adding that, however, the 2025 National Security Strategy for his second term introduced the "Trump Doctrine," designating the Western Hemisphere as a core area of interest.

This shift framed the prosperity and stability of the Western Hemisphere as central to U.S. security, Guo said.

Guo also noticed the current shift in Latin American politics to the right, or even extreme right, saying that Maduro stands out as an especially glaring figure against the context.

Political ambitions within Trump's inner circle and shift in U.S. global posture

Sun emphasized that U.S. foreign policy moves are deeply tied to the domestic political ambitions of Trump's inner circle, particularly Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Rubio is currently navigating a complex dilemma as he lays the groundwork for a potential 2028 presidential bid.

"As a Cuban-American, Rubio recognizes that if he can leverage the crisis in Venezuela to simultaneously destabilize the Cuban government, he would generate massive enthusiasm and support within his core base. However, he must also contend with the core MAGA constituency, which remains staunchly opposed to foreign interventions and costly government-change operations. This faction views such missions as a drain on national resources with no clear exit strategy.”

This internal conflict explains the administration's tactical approach: relying on precision air strikes to project strength and satisfy hawkish members, while avoiding "boots on the ground" commitments that could alienate the party's isolationist wing, Sun said, adding that the quick capture of Maduro is a direct solution to the dilemma, which could make different factions within the GOP satisfied.

Ultimately, these actions signal a profound shift in the American global posture, Sun said, citing the latest National Security Strategy, which suggests an intentional U.S. withdrawal from traditional European security roles, effectively leaving Europe to manage its own defense.

Under this new "America First" doctrine, the U.S. vision for Latin America is one where no rival power or disruptive force can challenge its dominance, Sun said, adding that consequently, a state like Venezuela, which serves as a key partner for Russia in the Americas, is no longer a localized issue, but an intolerable presence in a backyard that the U.S. intends to control exclusively.