U.S. says it will run Venezuela after capture of Maduro. What comes next?

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Saturday that the United States will run Venezuela following a military operation that forcibly seized President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, who have arrived at a New York military base on Saturday.

Analysts say the abrupt military move, officially framed as a counter-narcotics operation, marks a shift toward direct military intervention aimed at reshaping Venezuela's political landscape.

Speaking at a press conference at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida, Trump said, "We're going to run the country until such time as we can do a safe, proper and judicious transition," without offering a specific timeline. He added that senior officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, would work with a designated team to oversee the transition.

Further military action still on the table

Trump did not rule out further military action against Venezuela. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine said U.S. forces would remain in the region following large-scale strikes and Maduro's capture, maintaining a high level of readiness.

Trump also said the U.S. would maintain a presence in Venezuela related to the energy sector, authorizing U.S. oil companies to take over and invest in infrastructure, while stressing that the embargo on Venezuelan oil remains in place.

Analysts note that Venezuela holds the world's largest proven oil reserves – estimated at more than 300 billion barrels – primarily concentrated in the Orinoco heavy oil belt, making energy a central factor in Washington's calculations.

According to U.S. officials, American intelligence agents had been secretly monitoring Maduro's movements since August. The mission involved months of "pinpoint" planning and rehearsals. The U.S. military was reportedly ready by early December but waited for a window of "aligned events," including favorable weather conditions. Trump said he initially ordered the mission four days ago but delayed execution until the conditions were right.

U.S. seeks to reinforce dominance in Western Hemisphere

Experts argue that the operation is rooted in broader strategic calculations rather than being an impulsive decision. They point to Venezuela's long-standing resistance to U.S. influence and its vast oil reserves. By invoking anti-drug and counter-terrorism justifications, analysts say Washington is seeking to legitimize cross-border military action while reasserting the Monroe Doctrine and reinforcing U.S. dominance in the Western Hemisphere.

The U.S. has long accused the Maduro government of involvement in drug trafficking. In 2020, the U.S. Department of Justice indicted Maduro and other Venezuelan officials on charges including narco-terrorism and corruption. Experts say these allegations, combined with recent U.S. naval actions against suspected drug-trafficking vessels in the Caribbean, laid the groundwork for justifying military action.

Cui Zhongzhou, an associate professor at the Center for Latin America and Caribbean Studies at Southwest University of Science and Technology, said the operation also serves Trump's domestic political needs ahead of his State of the Union address, offering a strong foreign-policy action with visible "results" after stalled efforts to mediate the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Cui noted that Trump has repeatedly linked Venezuela to illegal immigration and drug flows, making direct military intervention a foreseeable option.

Sun Yanfeng, head of Latin American studies at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, said the scale of the strikes highlights Washington's dissatisfaction with the effectiveness of earlier coercive measures and underscores its continued pursuit of regime change through military means.

Lin Hua, an associate research fellow at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, described the operation as a forceful reaffirmation of the Monroe Doctrine, a U.S. foreign policy principle introduced in the 19th century long seen as a justification for expanding U.S. political and military influence in Latin America. He said that under Trump's second term, Latin America has been elevated to the top tier of U.S. strategic priorities, with a focus on controlling key strategic assets and preventing external powers from expanding their influence in the region.

What comes next?

Sun said the United States was likely to continue air or special operations aimed at overthrowing the Venezuelan government. 

Cui noted Washington would face two major challenges: dismantling the existing power structure and determining when and how to organize elections to install a new, U.S.-backed government.

Experts warned that the military operation could plunge Venezuela into a power vacuum, increasing the risk of internal power struggles or even civil conflict, echoing past U.S.-led interventions in Iraq and Libya.

It is reported that Venezuela's Supreme Court has ordered Vice President Delcy Rodríguez to assume the presidency of Venezuela. Under Venezuela's constitution, if a president becomes permanently unavailable, power should pass to vice president and an election should be called within 30 days. However, Washington does not recognize Maduro as Venezuela's legitimate president, nor does it recognize his administration as the country's legitimate government. The Venezuelan opposition, meanwhile, maintains that exiled politician Edmundo González is the rightful leader.

Rodríguez said on Saturday that Venezuela's National Defense Council had convened an emergency meeting and demanded the immediate release of Maduro and his wife. She stressed that Maduro is Venezuela's only legitimate president and that the country "will never become a colony of any foreign power."

Venezuela's permanent mission to the United Nations has sent a letter to the UN Security Council, strongly condemning what it described as U.S. "armed aggression" and calling for an emergency meeting, among other demands.

The military action has drawn widespread international concern. The UN said it was alarmed by the use of force and urged respect for international law and the UN Charter. China's Foreign Ministry said it was deeply shocked and strongly opposed the U.S. military action against a sovereign state, warning that it threatens peace and stability in Latin America and the Caribbean. European leaders and governments also stressed the need to uphold international law and the UN Charter, while calling for de-escalation and dialogue.