Canada's strategic shift: Pragmatic cooperation with China amid US uncertainty

Editor's note: Lin G. is a CGTN economic commentator. The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect those of CGTN.

Prime Minister Mark Carney's visit to China on January 13, 2026, marks a significant moment in Canada's foreign policy. It is not only the first visit by a Canadian leader since 2017 but also underscores Canada's attempt to navigate the uncertainties created by US unilateralism and to explore multilateral trade opportunities beyond the US sphere of influence.

The visit follows a period of diplomatic lows and recovery after the Meng Wanzhou incident. Meng, a senior executive of Huawei, was detained in Canada in 2018 at the request of the US and remained in detention until her release in 2021. China considered this detention illegal, leading to a significant strain in bilateral relations. Last year, tensions between the two countries began to ease. Now, Prime Minister Carney's visit marks a decisive step forward, signaling Canada's readiness to move past the earlier discord and focus on cooperation with China.

In this context, the core objective of Carney's visit is clear: To focus on constructive engagement, with areas such as trade, energy, and agriculture at the forefront.

Canada's economic vulnerability and the shift toward diversification

Canada is fundamentally a trade-dependent nation, with an economic structure built around specialization and export industries. The country's economy is not self-sufficient, and it relies heavily on international markets. For Canada, maintaining an open and stable global trade environment is essential.

However, the global landscape is shifting. Under the influence of the United States, rising protectionist policies are threatening the stability of trade relationships worldwide. The US has reduced its commitment to multilateral trade agreements, with the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) now replaced by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). In addition, the US has threatened to impose tariffs of up to 25 percent on Canadian goods, further highlighting the precariousness of Canada's economic reliance on its southern neighbor. These changes have left Canada vulnerable, particularly in key sectors such as agriculture, energy, and forestry.

In this climate, Canada has recognized the need to diversify its trade relationships to ensure long-term economic stability. China, with its enormous market size, well-developed industrial chains, and continued commitment to open trade, presents a potentially important partner. Canada's challenge will be to maintain its traditional ties with the United States while seizing new opportunities for cooperation with China and other nations, balancing historic relationships with emerging partnerships.

Trade disputes: The issue of electric vehicles and canola seeds

Despite the thawing diplomatic relationship, Canada and China still face challenges, particularly in the area of trade. One significant issue has been Canada's imposition of a 100 percent tariff on Chinese electric vehicles. This move, which led to a deadlock in trade between the two countries, has been widely seen as a response to US influence, given that Canada, as a trade nation, often aligns with US policies.

In response, China imposed anti-dumping tariffs on Canadian canola seeds in August 2025, a crucial agricultural export for Canada. The canola farming provinces, which are highly dependent on exports, saw this as a direct hit to their livelihoods. In turn, Canadian farmers, along with provincial lawmakers and officials, have urged Prime Minister Carney to address the issue by revising Canada's stance on electric vehicle tariffs, hoping that this would lead to the removal of retaliatory measures like the canola seed tariffs.

The situation highlights the complex nature of trade disputes between the two countries. The electric vehicle tariffs may have been more symbolic than practical, as Chinese vehicles have limited penetration in the Canadian market. However, they were still a significant obstacle to the future potential of bilateral trade. Canada's agriculture sector, which relies heavily on exports to China, was more immediately affected by China's countermeasures, thus adding urgency to Carney's mission to resolve these disputes.

Looking to the future: Multilateralism and Canada's strategic pivot

Looking ahead, Canada's ability to navigate the changing global order will be crucial. Prime Minister Carney's visit underscores the strategic pivot Canada is making in response to the rising unpredictability of US policies and its attempt to establish itself as a more autonomous player in global trade.

While the success of this strategy remains uncertain, it represents a crucial attempt to establish a new equilibrium in Canada's international relations — one that is no longer solely shaped by US priorities, but instead grounded in a more inclusive, multilateral approach. China's ongoing openness to foreign cooperation offers stability to trade-dependent countries, presenting a crucial counterbalance to the shifting global environment.

The world will be closely watching Canada's efforts. Can Canada successfully reduce its dependence on the US while strengthening its ties with China and other global partners? Only time will tell, but the stakes are high — not just for Canada, but for the broader global economic order.