World Economic Forum flags 'geoeconomic confrontation' as top global risk

The World Economic Forum (WEF) warned on Wednesday that "geoeconomic confrontation" was the most severe short-term global risk for 2026, underscoring how rising strategic rivalry, trade tensions and technology competition are reshaping the global outlook.

In its 2026 global risks report, WEF said geoeconomic confrontation now ranks first among short-term risks a two-year period, jumping eight places from last year to mark the steepest rise among all categories. As many as 18 percent of respondents viewed it as the risk most likely to trigger a global crisis in 2026.

The report said the increasing weaponization of economic tools as instruments of geopolitical competition, alongside supply-chain fragmentation and technological decoupling, is intensifying pressure on the global economy and weakening the capacity for collective responses to shocks.

Nearly half of surveyed leaders and experts expect the global environment to remain volatile or turbulent over the next two years, the report showed, with only a small minority anticipating a return to relative stability.

Speaking at a press conference ahead of the WEF annual meeting on Tuesday, the WEF said the world has entered a "new economic reality" marked by rapid change and rising complexity.

In response to a question from a China Media Group (CMG) reporter on the current "Star Wars"-style situation, the WEF said governments, businesses and civil society must continuously adapt their cooperation through dialogue, rather than rely on static policy frameworks.

"[Davos is] trying to move the needle on a certain issue," said Mirek Dusek, managing director of WEF, adding that the annual meeting in Davos and its multi-stakeholder initiatives – including the Reskilling Revolution, the AI Governance Alliance and climate and nature-related programmes – are designed to deliver measurable and trackable progress through clearly defined benchmarks.

WEF President and CEO Borge Brende has said the current global landscape is among the most complex seen in decades, but that avenues for cooperation remain open despite intensifying rivalry.

"Dialogue is not a luxury. Dialogue is really a necessity," Brende has said during the press conference. "We do hope that a spirit of dialogue can lead also to areas where the leaders can find overlap in interest, so we can move the world forward in many of the very important topics for the World Economic Forum."

The 2026 World Economic Forum Annual Meeting will take place in Davos, Switzerland, from January 19 to January 23 under the theme "A Spirit of Dialogue."

WEF expect a record number of participants, including global political leaders, senior corporate executives, heads of international organisations and representatives from civil society: around 3,000 participants from more than 130 countries, including roughly 400 senior political leaders and nearly 65 heads of state and government.

As geoeconomic tensions continue to rise, WEF said this year's meeting will serve as a key platform for assessing risks, recalibrating policy priorities and exploring ways to rebuild trust and cooperation in a fragmented global system.