Iran's temporary closure of its airspace, U.S. reconnaissance aircraft flying along Iran's borders, and heightened military movements across the Middle East have fueled intense speculation over whether Washington is preparing for a military strike on Iran.

Against this backdrop, the White House said on Thursday that U.S. President Donald Trump is closely monitoring the situation and is keeping all options on the table.

The statement followed days of sharp rhetoric from U.S. officials and mixed signals from the U.S. president himself, reflecting uncertainty over the next phase of Washington's policy toward Tehran.

Wavering signals from Washington

In recent days, the Trump administration has repeatedly issued warnings suggesting the possible use of force, particularly in response to Iran's handling of domestic unrest.

According to The New York Times, Trump has been considering whether to follow through on threats of military action, citing anger within the administration over Iran's treatment of demonstrators. On Tuesday, Trump posted on his Truth Social platform urging Iranians to continue protesting, writing that "help is on its way," and announcing the cancellation of all meetings with Iranian officials. When pressed by reporters to clarify what that "help" meant, Trump declined to elaborate.

A day later, however, Trump struck a more cautious note. Speaking at the White House on Wednesday, he said he would "wait and see"on the development of the situation in Iran, while also claiming that Washington had received "very positive statements from Iran." He stopped short of ruling out military action.

By Thursday, U.S. media outlets, including Axios and CNN, reported that Trump was temporarily holding off on a final decision regarding military strikes. According to these reports, the White House is engaged in intense internal deliberations and consultations with allies, weighing not only the timing of any potential strike, but also whether military action could realistically weaken or destabilize the Iranian government.

Niu Xinchun, deputy principal of Ningxia University said that Trump's fluctuating stance reflects Washington's strategic dilemma.

Trump's earlier statements raised expectations very high, Niu pointed out. "The U.S. objective is regime change, primarily through Iran's opposition forces. But in recent days, the situation inside Iran has become relatively calmer. Under these circumstances, launching a military strike would be unlikely to achieve the desired results."

Is the U.S. military ready?

While no attack has been authorized, U.S. military preparations have drawn close scrutiny.

CBS News reported on Monday that Trump had received briefings on a wide range of military and covert options, extending well beyond conventional airstrikes. According to anonymous Pentagon officials, fighter jet operations and long-range missile strikes remain central to any potential attack plan. In addition, the Pentagon has prepared cyber warfare and psychological operations targeting Iran's command structure, communications networks, and state media – tools that could be used alongside or independently from kinetic military action.

Aircraft carrier strike groups are typically a key component of U.S. military deterrence or large-scale operations. However, no U.S. carrier is currently positioned near Iran. According to sources cited by China Media Group, the U.S. Navy is redeploying the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group to the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility, a process expected to take about a week.

At the same time, U.S. forces already stationed in the Middle East have shown signs of increased activity. Israel's Channel 14 reported that U.S. aircraft operations at Qatar's Al Udeid Air Base have risen significantly. On the night of January 11, multiple U.S. aircraft – including KC-135R aerial refueling aircraft and B-52 strategic bombers – reportedly took off from the base.

Al Udeid is the largest U.S. military facility in the Gulf region and features a 4,500-meter runway capable of supporting B-52 and B-2 bombers. Located just 200 to 300 kilometers from Iran's borders, the base provides the U.S. Air Force with a forward position that substantially shortens strike distances – while simultaneously heightening regional tensions.

The military analysis website The War Zone noted that if Washington were genuinely preparing for a strike, it would likely first reinforce air and missile defense systems across the region, potentially involving large transport aircraft delivering defensive systems and additional fighter squadrons.

Michael Clarke, a British military analyst has suggested that any U.S. strike would likely target Iran's nuclear facilities, the headquarters of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or key oil and gas infrastructure.

Niu warned that the broader regional impact would depend on the scale of any confrontation. If the U.S. and Iran enter a large-scale conflict, the consequences for the Middle East would be enormous, he said. 

The U.S. has 19 military bases across the region, all within Iran's strike range. Most of these bases are located in Arab countries. Attacking them would effectively mean drawing those countries into the conflict, Niu added.