In a matter of days, U.S.–Iran relations have swung from the brink of military confrontation toward a potential return to diplomacy, in a style typical of the volatility that has defined Washington's Iran policy under U.S. President Donald Trump.

Below is an overview outlining Trump's policies towards Iran across his two terms, from maximum pressure to military brinkmanship.

Trump's first term (2017 – 2021)

Trump's strategy was marked by three elements: diplomatic isolation, maximum economic pressure, and direct actions against top Iranian officials.

On July 14, 2015, the United States, Russia, China, the United Kingdom, France, Germany and Iran reached a Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) over Iran's nuclear program, under which Iran agreed to limit its nuclear activities in return for relief from international community sanctions. However, on May 8, 2018, Trump's administration unilaterally withdrew from the agreement and reimposed economic sanctions.

During this term, the U.S. also worked to diplomatically isolate Iran by brokering the Abraham Accords in 2020. These agreements normalized relations between Israel and several Arab nations (the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco), creating a new regional security architecture against Iran.

According to a U.S. State Department fact sheet published on April 4, 2019, the "Maximum Pressure Campaign" on Iran had removed 1.5 million barrels of Iranian crude from the market daily and denied Iran $10 billion in oil revenue since May 2018. The document attributed Iran's economic deterioration to the government's own mismanagement, while also admitting that U.S. "targeted pressure" played a significant role in crippling the country's economy. Time Magazine senior correspondent W.J. Hennigan observed that "Iran's economy-sustaining oil exports plunged to historic lows" under these financial restrictions.

Weaponizing economic sanctions in attempt to gain the upper hand in negotiations is a recurring motif in Trump's strategy. Over his first term, a total of "more than 1,500 sanctions" were imposed, threatening to wipe out Iran's oil revenue. This pressure was intended to force Iran to accept a list of 12 U.S. demands, including stringent nuclear confines and an end to ballistic missile tests, though they were ultimately dismissed by Iran.

The period also saw an escalation in the spectrum of military options, most notably with the January 3, 2020, assassination of top Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani in a U.S. airstrike in Baghdad. Iran retaliated by launching over 12 ballistic missiles at two Iraqi airbases hosting U.S. troops: Al-Asad Airbase and a facility in Erbil.

Trump's second term (2025 – Present)

Upon returning to office, Trump intensified his strategy with a "Maximum Pressure 2.0" campaign. In February 2025, he signed National Security Presidential Memorandum 2, directing officials to drive Iranian oil exports to zero and eliminate Iran's nuclear capabilities across related programs.

The administration's core objectives remained consistent: containing Iran's nuclear and missile development through a combination of economic and diplomatic levers, while bringing the full force of the U.S. economic and military might to bear down on negotiations.

Tensions spiked on June 21, 2025, when the U.S. launched Operation Midnight Hammer, a series of major air strikes on three key Iranian nuclear facilities – Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan, significantly damaging Iran's missile and nuclear infrastructure.

The strike prompted Iran's retaliation with a ballistic missile barrage targeting Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar and various Israeli military sites. Yet the repercussions extended well beyond the battlefield. Iran's currency plummeted to a historic low of 1.4 million rials per U.S. dollar. The depreciation of the rial, combined with a 52 percent inflation, led to a cost of living crisis that set off the largest domestic uprising since the 1979 Revolution.

Mounting domestic unrest rendered the country vulnerable to military intervention by Washington. On January 12, Trump issued the following chilling threat, "We are locked and loaded and ready to go."

Although Trump has now pulled back from kinetic action, U.S.–Iran relations remain highly volatile. 

Looking ahead, the region is likely to remain unpredictable. Trump's approach toward Iran is itself "chaotic and contradictory," as noted by Mohamad Bazzi, director of the Hagop Kevorkian Center for Near Eastern Studies and a journalism professor at New York University.

The prospect of a U.S.–Iran deal is also undetermined. According to Fabian Hinz, a research fellow for missile technologies and UAVs at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, it will hinge on "whether the U.S. embarks on military intervention or favors diplomatic engagement instead," which will also determine "Iran's appetite for negotiations with Washington."