Explainer: Will Japan PM Takaichi's election gamble pay off?

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi recently announced that the House of Representatives will be dissolved on January 23, with a general election scheduled for February 8. Local media described the move as a political "surprise attack," noting that the 16-day interval between dissolution and voting is the shortest since the end of World War Two. Why did Takaichi make such a sudden decision? How has it been received across Japan? And can the strategy succeed?

Why launch a sudden "surprise attack"?

At a press conference on Monday, Takaichi cited changes in the ruling coalition's framework and key policies related to Japan's fundamental national interests as reasons for dissolving the lower house. However, Japanese media generally believe her move serves three main purposes.

First, to increase seats and consolidate power. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) led by Takaichi currently holds 199 of the 465 seats in the House of Representatives, short of a majority. By calling an early election, Takaichi may seek to capitalize on her current popularity to expand the LDP's seat count, strengthen her governing base and pave the way for revisions to key security policy documents. A larger seat share would also reduce the LDP's dependence on its coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party (JIP), which holds 34 seats.

Second, to lock in seats before losing support. Although Takaichi enjoys a certain level of popularity, dissatisfaction is growing over persistently high prices, LDP's unresolved slush fund scandal, and heightened tensions in China-Japan relations since she took office. Several opposition parties had previously stated they would intensify scrutiny of the Takaichi administration in the Diet, raising the likelihood of declining approval ratings. Atsushi Koketsu, professor emeritus at Yamaguchi University, pointed out that Takaichi hopes to expand and "lock in" LDP seats before such losses materialize.

Third, to catch the opposition off guard. Japanese media commented that this "ultra-short campaign" significantly compresses the opposition's preparation time, putting them at a clear disadvantage.

How has Japanese society reacted? 

The "surprise attack" has triggered widespread concern and discontent across Japanese society.

While the move was driven by partisan interests, it has also drawn criticism within the LDP for being "arbitrary." To maximize its impact, Takaichi kept the dissolution plan tightly under wraps. Even senior party figures, including LDP Vice President Taro Aso, widely regarded as a key power broker behind Takaichi, were not informed in advance. LDP Secretary-General Shunichi Suzuki told reporters he first learned of the decision through media reports and was taken aback.

Opposition parties accused Takaichi of dissolving the lower house to evade debate and said the timing was inappropriate. Tomoko Tamura, chair of the Japanese Communist Party, said the move showed the government "simply cannot withstand Diet debates." Yoshihiko Noda, leader of the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ), questioned whether it was appropriate to dissolve the lower house when some regions are experiencing heavy snowfall and students are preparing for exams.

An Asahi Shimbun poll showed that 50 percent of respondents oppose dissolving the House of Representatives at this time. The main reason cited was concern that the fiscal 2026 budget may not be approved before the new fiscal year begins on April 1, which contradicts Takaichi's stated priority of tackling high prices. Editorials in major newspapers such as the Mainichi Shimbun and the Tokyo Shimbun criticized her for putting partisan interests first and abusing the power to dissolve the lower house.

Can the "surprise attack" succeed?

Takaichi hopes the snap election will help the ruling party secure a majority in the House of Representatives. However, the newly formed party Centrist Reform Alliance, quickly established by the CDPJ and Komeito, has also emerged as a significant variable.

The CDPJ and Komeito currently hold 148 and 24 seats in the lower house, respectively. By cooperating, they plan to support each other's candidates in the upcoming contest. Japanese media noted that Komeito is expected to fully back CDPJ candidates in the single-seat electoral districts, meaning votes that previously went to the LDP could shift to the opposition. LDP tax policy chief Itsunori Onodera acknowledged that CDPJ candidates gaining Komeito's support could affect the electoral landscape.

Polls show that while Takaichi herself retains a degree of public support, overall backing for the LDP remains low, leaving uncertainty over how much trust and support voters will grant in a new election. Jiji Press quoted election and political advisor Akira Kume as saying that although Takaichi pledged to "work, work, work" to deliver results, calling an election before achieving tangible outcomes lacks a convincing rationale.

Some Japanese media outlets, however, pointed out that the CDPJ-Komeito alliance appears hastily formed in response to the election, and given the significant differences in their policy stances, it remains to be seen whether the Centrist Reform Alliance can attract broader voter support.