Why is Takaichi dissolving the lower house and will she win?

Japan's House of Representatives was formally dissolved on Friday, setting the stage for a snap election as Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi moves to consolidate her political authority in a high-stakes political gamble.

According to the official timetable, the election will be announced on January 27, followed by voting and ballot counting on February 8. The 16-day interval between the dissolution of the lower house and election day is the shortest in Japan's postwar history.

Takaichi said the decision was aimed at advancing new economic and fiscal policies and ensuring smoother implementation of the governing agenda with coalition partner Japan Innovation Party, noting that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) currently lacks a majority in both chambers of parliament.

A high-stakes political gamble

She has also publicly tied her political future to the election outcome, vowing to resign as prime minister if the LDP-led coalition fails to secure a majority in the lower house.

At present, the LDP holds 199 seats in the 465-member House of Representatives, well short of the 233 needed for a majority, and it remains a minority in the upper house. Under these conditions, many of Takaichi's policy initiatives are expected to face significant resistance during parliamentary deliberations.

Analysts say the snap election is an attempt to get ahead of mounting political and economic risks.

Japan continues to grapple with persistently high prices, unresolved political funding scandals involving the LDP, and growing public dissatisfaction over the government's foreign and security policies, including heightened tensions in China-Japan relations triggered by Takaichi's erroneous remarks on Taiwan last year. Several opposition parties have already signaled their intention to subject the Takaichi cabinet to aggressive questioning in upcoming parliamentary sessions.

In addition, the Takaichi administration pushed through an 18.3 trillion yen ($115.3 billion) supplementary budget for fiscal year 2025 late last year, much of it financed by government bond issuance. Experts warn the move could exacerbate yen depreciation and inflationary pressures in 2026. Meanwhile, efforts to accelerate defense spending to two percent of GDP may involve tax hikes, drawing criticism from opposition parties.

"By calling an early election now, Takaichi can disrupt the opposition's momentum and shift public attention away from looming economic and political vulnerabilities," said Meng Mingming, an assistant researcher at the Institute of Japanese Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, in an interview with China Media Group.

Opposition parties move to challenge

The move has sparked widespread criticism across Japan's political spectrum, with opposition parties accusing Takaichi of abusing her authority to dissolve the lower house for partisan advantage.

An Asahi Shimbun opinion poll showed that 50 percent of respondents opposed dissolving the House of Representatives at this time. On January 19, protesters gathered outside the parliamentary members' office building in Tokyo, arguing that the dissolution made the implementation of key policies such as budget approval and inflation control uncertain.

Opposition leaders also questioned the timing of the decision. Japanese Communist Party Chair Tomoko Tamura said the dissolution amounted to an attempt to evade parliamentary debate, while Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) leader Yoshihiko Noda criticized the move as inappropriate amid winter weather disruptions and the ongoing academic examination season.

The House of Representatives has 465 seats, with 233 required for a majority. Takaichi aims for the LDP, either alone or with coalition partners, to secure more than half. Failure to do so would almost certainly end her premiership.

Whether she will prevail in this political gamble remains highly uncertain. Recent local elections have exposed persistent public distrust of the party, particularly over corruption issues. In December, a professor filed a complaint against Takaichi and her local LDP chapter in Nara for accepting an illegal 10 million yen ($64,400) corporate donation, exceeding the 7.5 million yen legal limit.

Meanwhile, opposition forces are moving to consolidate. The CDP and Komeito have formed a new political alliance known as the "Centrist Reform Alliance," which advocates a "people-first" economic agenda, adherence to Japan's non-nuclear principles, measures to curb excessive yen depreciation, and policies aimed at lowering living costs. Japanese media report that if opposition voters coalesce during the unusually short campaign period, the new bloc could emerge as a formidable challenger.

Regardless of the election outcome, analysts warn that the snap vote is likely to carry institutional costs. Parliamentary sessions, along with deliberations on the 2026 fiscal budget, will be delayed, potentially affecting corporate investment, local government funding, and social welfare programs at a time of economic strain.

Meng cautioned that public perceptions of power abuse could further undermine trust in Japan's political system and democratic decision-making.

He also warned that if the LDP or LDP-led coalition wins a majority, it could accelerate revisions to key security documents, including potential changes to Japan's long-standing non-nuclear principles and restrictions on arms exports – moves that could push Japan further away from its postwar pacifist framework, deepen political polarization, and further strain China-Japan relations.