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2026.01.29 22:16 GMT+8

Expert: Canada's China pivot signals global shift as U.S.-led order frays

Updated 2026.01.29 22:16 GMT+8
CGTN

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney arrives on Parliament Hill before attending caucus in Ottawa, January 28, 2026. /VCG

Canada's recent shift toward a new strategic partnership with China reflects a broader global trend in which countries are hedging their economic and diplomatic bets as the U.S.-led international order weakens, a financial expert said.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's January visit to China resulted in what Carney described as a "preliminary but landmark" strategic partnership, marking Canada's most significant new external partnership since his government took office, wrote Zhu Ning, a finance professor at Shanghai Jiao Tong University's Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance.

He noted that the visit was the first by a Canadian prime minister in nearly a decade, representing a turning point in bilateral ties after years of strain.

Canada's move reflected a wider concern among major U.S. trading partners about the risk of sudden U.S. tariff hikes, Zhu said, adding that the risk was especially acute for Canada given that about 70 percent of its exports go to the United States.

He argued that recent pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump on Denmark and the European Union over Greenland had further heightened Canada's anxieties, extending them beyond trade into broader geopolitical uncertainty.

Against the backdrop of profound changes and turbulence in the global system, Canada's policy shift could prove to be a milestone as countries are forced to seek new ways to safeguard core national interests and recalibrate their positions between China and the United States, the professor wrote.

Carney openly acknowledged this trend at the World Economic Forum in Davos, saying the U.S.-led post–World War II international order was unraveling and was "not coming back."

Zhu said Trump's shifting reactions to the China–Canada partnership illustrated the defining volatility of the current era, noting that Trump initially welcomed the move before later threatening blanket tariffs of up to 100 percent if Canada pursued a trade deal with China.

He wrote that, in this context, Canada was repositioning itself in what is often described as a "new world order," emphasizing Carney's assertion that sustained, candid dialogue with China could build a more predictable and effective relationship.

Zhu added that it was ironic that dialogue and negotiation, cornerstones of the postwar order once championed by the United States, were increasingly being replaced by unilateral demands and coercive tactics.

Amid uncertainty over the future of global governance, governments naturally adopt hedging strategies and diversify partnerships, and Canada's push to diversify trade mirrored similar approaches seen worldwide in supply chains, security cooperation and foreign exchange reserves, he wrote.

Zhu cautioned that significant challenges remained before any comprehensive trade agreement could be concluded and implemented and wrote that U.S. policy choices would continue to heavily influence Canada's efforts, as they do for many other countries.

He said, despite the obstacles, momentum was building, predicted that 2026 would see more high-level visits and bilateral trade agreements, and argued that in an era of "variable geometry," flexible and diversified partnerships may be the only viable response to growing global uncertainty.

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