U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday threatened to impose tariffs on countries supplying oil to Cuba.

The proposed "secondary sanctions," authorized by an executive order under a national emergency declaration, are designed to sever Cuba's crumbling energy lifelines. "Cuba will be failing pretty soon," said Trump on Tuesday, noting that Cuba's longtime oil supplier Venezuela, is no longer sending oil or financial support.

Cuba, which imports roughly 60 percent of its petroleum, has been stranded in a severe fuel crisis since a U.S. naval blockade began intercepting "sanctioned oil tankers" from Venezuela last year. Trump's tariff threats have made Cuba's energy shortage even worse, as oil deliveries from Mexico – Cuba's major oil provider after U.S. severed the Venezuelan route – has also been temporarily suspended, according to Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum.

CGTN spoke with Guo Cunhai, a senior research fellow at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and director of the Center for Argentina Studies. According to Guo, this escalation signals Washington's intent to destabilize Cuba from within, and may force more Latin American nations to fundamentally reassess their strategic relationships with the U.S.

The following is a translated excerpt from the interview, edited for clarity and conciseness.

CGTN: Trump has threatened to impose tariffs against countries that provide oil to Cuba. How will this impact Cuba's energy security, economic operations and social stability?

Guo: The Trump administration is attempting to exert pressure on Cuba by weakening Venezuela, thus cutting off Cuba's energy supplies. Cuba is already facing an energy crisis with tightened oil supplies and worsening blackouts. If the Trump administration indeed implements those sanctions, Cuba will face severe impacts.

Reports already suggest that Cuba's oil reserves can only last 15 to 20 days, and power outages have become increasingly frequent. Trump is directly attacking Cuba's energy security chain by using "secondary tariffs" to limit or even blockade Cuba's channels for acquiring fuel from third parties.

Public services and industrial production will be among the first to be impacted by Cuba's obstructed energy supplies. This will further worsen the country's fuel shortages, causing longer and more frequent blackouts. Subsequently, power and fuel shortages will exacerbate instability in the transportation and logistics sectors, driving up commodity prices.

Economic damage tends to breed social instability; with blackouts restricting movement and severely impacting daily life, it could create economic woes and cause social grievances to boil over.

By controlling oil supplies, the U.S. intends to create a domino effect aimed at destabilizing Cuba – lack of energy security disrupts economic activities, which then affects social stability. Ultimately, the U.S. is looking to trigger social unrest or even riots to dismantle Cuba from within.

CGTN: The U.S. began to target Cuba right after striking Venezuela. What geopolitical strategy and domestic political objectives lie behind these U.S. actions?

Guo: From a regional strategic perspective, Cuba and Venezuela have formed a close alliance – an integrated relationship, even – over the past 20 years. By striking Venezuela, the U.S. is effectively attacking Cuba indirectly. The U.S. relaunch of a pressure campaign targeting Mexico and other countries supplying oil to Cuba is aimed at further isolating Cuba from other Caribbean nations.

Trump's executive orders tie national emergency declarations to his tariff threats, portraying Cuba as an "unusual and extraordinary threat" to U.S. national security and foreign policy. Relying on domestic law, the U.S. seeks to use trade and tariff tools to achieve its geopolitical goals – cutting Cuba's lifeline without using military blockades, but rather by forcing third-party countries to choose sides between the U.S. and Cuba.

In terms of domestic politics, it's easy to mobilize public support for campaigns targeting Cuba, particularly in places like Miami. Hardline anti-Cuba officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio and his predecessor Mike Pompeo, have been advocating for a harsher stance on Cuba to prevent so-called "infiltration" and ideological threats.

Trump's action against Cuba also reflects his personal political goals. His "Make America Great Again" slogan is ultimately about shaping his own legacy. Ever since the Cuban revolution in the 1950s, almost every single U.S. president has tried and failed to subvert the Cuban government. Trump is attempting to leave his legacy by achieving what his predecessors all fell short of.

CGTN: Amid escalating U.S. sanctions, is it possible for Cuba to find alternative energy solutions and trade channels to meet its demands?

Guo: While alternative energy sources and trade routes do exist for Cuba, their implementation can be either too challenging, too expensive, or unstable.

Reports indicate that Cuba requires approximately 100,000 barrels of oil per day. The country can only produce 40,000 barrels each day domestically, leaving a 60-percent gap.

Possible countermeasures include compressing demand, such as power rationing and reducing industrial energy use. However, the potential outcome of further economic woes could play right into the U.S. hands, as it leads to deteriorating standards of living, which provides fertile ground for anti-government sentiment.

Seeking oil outside the Caribbean region would still subject any potential suppliers to U.S. secondary tariffs. Cuba's shortage of foreign exchange reserves, a strict bank settlement environment, plus the high cost of insurance and shipping, all hinder Cuba's ability to find new trading partners.

Substituting gasoline with diesel or other fuels could also prove difficult in the short run, as Cuba's aging infrastructure needs retrofitting, which requires capital and spare parts – both of which Cuba lacks at the moment.

Mexico has already replaced Venezuela as Cuba's major oil supplier, but U.S. pressure may coerce Mexico into shrinking its oil exports.

CGTN:  Are Trump's "secondary tariffs" essentially "long-arm jurisdiction"? Do they comply with international trade rules and international laws?

Guo: The U.S. attempt to penalize third-party countries on the basis of oil trade with Cuba effectively acts as "long-arm jurisdiction" or a "secondary sanction." This action is not backed by international law or trade rules, but rather by drastic national power discrepancies.

Breaking rules and setting new precedents has become a trait of the Trump administration. The U.S. typically defends such legally dubious moves – including its military strike targeting Venezuela – by claiming those actions are exempt on the grounds of "national security." Trump has been using the exact same narrative for his campaign against Cuba.

CGTN:  How will Washington's latest measures reshape energy cooperation in the Caribbean? Will it cause a fundamental shift in Latin American countries' view of U.S. policy?

Guo: Trump's secondary tariffs will certainly affect regional energy cooperation, as energy transportation and transactions related to Cuba will become more cautious.

The costs of shipping and bank settlements will rise, while parts of the Caribbean energy market may become more discreet and decentralized.

Mexico, as a major supplier to Cuba, will face significant pressure from the U.S. The Mexican government holds an ambiguous stance for now, and it has already drastically shrunk its oil exports to Cuba.

Overall, the sanctions Trump is trying to implement will force more Latin American countries to be more cautious regarding their relationships with the U.S. They may change their policy posture to be more aligned with realism.