Upcoming U.S.-Iran talks in Istanbul: What are the chances of a deal?

A potential diplomatic opening emerged on Monday amid soaring tensions in the Middle East.

Following reports that Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has ordered a start of nuclear negotiations with Washington, U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi are reportedly to meet in Istanbul this Friday to discuss a potential deal.

U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday told reporters at the White House that the U.S. has deployed "big" naval ships to the region, adding that talks with Iran were ongoing and he will "see how it works out."

Also on Monday, reports emerged that Israel issued three hardline demands regarding the U.S.-Iran negotiations, and it had a joint naval drill with U.S. forces in the Red Sea.

This raises several critical questions: How willing are Washington and Tehran to negotiate? How significant are the differences in their negotiation objectives? What is Israel's role? And what role can regional mediators actually play?

Experts believe that the room for compromise between the U.S. and Iran, each entrenched in their respective core demands, remains narrow.

Read more: Trump says talks ongoing, Iran demands sanctions relief

How willing are U.S. and Iran for talks?

Li Zixin, assistant research fellow at the China Institute of International Studies (CIIS), said both the United States and Iran seem genuinely willing to engage in negotiations.

From the U.S. perspective, the fundamental driver of its actions and decision-making is cost control – achieving strategic geopolitical objectives with minimal resources, Li told China Media Group.

Iran is a major regional power, and an open full-scale war with it would undoubtedly entail significant risks for the U.S. – a scenario Washington would seek to avert, he added.

For Iran, the prospect of war with the U.S. also carries considerable uncertainty, Li said. "Tehran's strategy is one of maximal deterrence – threatening to escalate and widen the conflict to discourage U.S. military adventurism."

Resolving the crisis through negotiation, however, remains Tehran's preferred path, he added.

How wide is the gap between goals of U.S. and Iran?

The U.S. is demanding that Iran completely abandon any rights regarding its nuclear program and ballistic missile activities, cease all uranium enrichment, and drastically limit and reduce its production and stockpiles of ballistic missiles, noted the CIIS researcher.

On the geopolitical front, the U.S. also requires Iran to cease all support for its regional allies, Li added.

Meanwhile, Iran wants the U.S. to end military threats and lift unilateral sanctions, he said.

Based on their respective positions, there is very little room for compromise or concession from either side, Li concluded.

What is Israel's role, if any?

The Israeli military confirmed on Monday that its navy held a joint exercise with U.S. forces in the Red Sea the previous day.

Meanwhile, reports said Israel would present a set of three hardline demands regarding the Iran talks during a meeting with the U.S. side led by Witkoff on Tuesday.

Israel insists, according to reports, that in any potential agreement reached between the U.S. and Iran, Iran must adhere to the following three red lines: no development of nuclear program, no development of ballistic missile program, no support for armed "proxies," including so-called "terrorist organizations" that would threaten Israel.

The reports further indicate that Israel currently maintains the view that "overthrowing the Iranian regime" through military strikes remains possible.

Zhou Dewu, a former deputy editor-in-chief of Ta Kung Pao newspaper in Hong Kong, noted that Israel's primary concern remains the missile threat from Iran.

Particularly in the aftermath of the "12-Day War" against Iran in June last year, Israel's inventory of interceptor missiles has been significantly depleted, and it believes the threat posed by Iran has increased substantially, Zhou wrote in a commentary on Tuesday.

Consequently, Israel will undoubtedly intensify its lobbying efforts for the U.S. to pressure Iran into making the missile program a core issue of the upcoming negotiations, he analyzed.

Read more:

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What role can regional mediators play?

As tensions remain high, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said on Sunday that if the United States starts a war against Iran, it will be regional.

Qatar and Türkiye, which are not only U.S. allies but also maintain favorable relations with Iran, are widely seen as players who have a vital role in mediating.

Noting that Qatar's prime minister made an unannounced visit to Tehran last Saturday and Türkiye's president held a phone call with Trump, Zhou said these diplomatic moves ultimately helped pave the way for the upcoming U.S.-Iran talks in Istanbul.

Middle Eastern countries fear that if the situation escalates into a regional war, the resulting spillover effects would inevitably engulf neighboring countries, Zhou said.

Furthermore, if the Strait of Hormuz were to be blocked, the global oil market would be thrown into chaos, he said.

He added, driven by deep anxiety over these scenarios, Middle Eastern leaders have been engaging in shuttle diplomacy, traveling back and forth between the U.S. and Iran.