Japan's ruling bloc secures lower house majority: What's next for China-Japan relations?

After Japan's ruling coalition won a majority in the House of Representatives, experts warned that Japan's post-election political direction could bring renewed uncertainty to China-Japan relations.

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is likely to push for a tougher security agenda, experts said, including sharply increasing defense spending and reviving efforts to revise Japan's pacifist constitution – moves that could further heighten bilateral tensions.

Analysts also suggested that Japan's hardline posture toward China is out of step at a time when many Western countries are shifting toward pragmatic engagement with Beijing. However, they stressed that China and Japan remain deeply economically interdependent, meaning Tokyo's room for maneuver could be constrained if it overplays a confrontational approach.

On Sunday, Japan's ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Japan Innovation Party (JIP) secured a more than two-thirds majority in the House of Representatives following a snap general election, a major political boost for Takaichi, who had previously been seen as a relatively weak leader due to the coalition's slim standing in the parliament.

Takaichi's China strategy

With her political position strengthened, Takaichi is expected to accelerate her long-standing agenda, particularly in security. Previous moves show she may push for a significant increase in defense spending, revisions to Japan's arms export restrictions, and expanded development of advanced military capabilities, including nuclear-powered submarines. She could also revive efforts to amend Japan's pacifist constitution. These moves would likely intensify security tensions in East Asia and further heightened China-Japan tensions.

Late last year, Takaichi claimed that a potential contingency in Taiwan could constitute a "survival-threatening situation" for Japan, hinting military involvement. The statement triggered a strong backlash from China and also stirred controversy at home, where critics warned it could damage China-Japan economic and people-to-people exchanges – an outcome Japan can ill afford given its fragile economy. 

Japan has long faced structural challenges, including weak growth, slow progress in developing new industries, rapid aging and a shrinking workforce. These pressures have been compounded in recent years by a weakening yen and imported inflation, which have pushed up the cost of living while wage growth remains limited. 

Chinese commentator Hu Xijin suggested that the LDP's victory on Sunday was driven by Takaichi's public image and her economic pledges, including tax cuts and subsidies, which appealed to voters, while her hardline China stance was not necessarily embraced but largely sidelined during the campaign. 

However, some analysts argue that China-related issues could increasingly become a political tool for Takaichi, as amplifying tensions with Beijing may help consolidate nationalist support and strengthen her political legitimacy.

Hiroshi Shiratori, professor at Hosei University, told Chinese media outlet The Paper that Japan's competitive mindset toward China has intensified alongside China's rise. "By portraying China as an external threat, Takaichi can elevate her legitimacy and consolidate support," he said.

Professor Liu Jiangyong from Tsinghua University said that right-wing forces in Japan have exploited younger generations' limited historical understanding to distort facts and hype the "China threat," helping Takaichi cultivate a tough image. Liu also noted that the snap election strategy left opposition parties little time to respond, giving the ruling bloc a tactical advantage.

Japan risks being marginalized

The election coincides with China hosting visits from several Western leaders, including from Ireland, the UK and Canada, signaling that many countries are seeking stability and development cooperation with China despite differences in political systems. Against this backdrop, analysts argue Japan's increasingly hardline stance against China risks appearing isolated.

Shiratori warned that Takaichi relies heavily on personal judgment in policymaking and lacks coordination with the international community. He cautioned that deteriorating ties with China could bring tangible harm to the Japanese public.

He also expressed concern that Japan may gradually drift away from the existing international order. If Tokyo continues to expand its military posture, tighten intelligence controls, and restrict foreign visas and residency policies, Japan could become increasingly isolated internationally. "The United States may withstand such isolation," he said, "but Japan risks being marginalized if it imitates Washington's approach."

Will China soften its stance?

Liu dismissed voices in Japan suggesting that China may soften its stance if Takaichi secures a stronger mandate, stressing that China will not change its position on issues concerning its core interests. He said that Japanese leaders must respect the consensus reflected in the four key political documents between the two countries if they seek stable relations with China.

Pang Zhongpeng, associate research fellow at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences' Institute of Japanese Studies, said Japan's ruling camp may try to convert electoral gains into diplomatic leverage. However, Japan's dependence on the Chinese market and key raw materials is unlikely to change in the short term, he said, adding this deep economic interdependence constrains any efforts to pursue a "de-China" policy amid domestic economic pressures.

As the world's second-largest economy and a major engine of global growth, China's development remains a crucial opportunity for Japan, Pang said. Given the significant gap in economic scale between the two countries, any volatility in bilateral trade, investment and consumption would likely have asymmetric consequences, with Japan bearing heavier costs, making any attempt at "economic coercion" unrealistic.

China remains Japan's largest trading partner and one of the most important destinations for Japanese investment. According to China's Ministry of Commerce, bilateral trade reached $322.18 billion in 2025, up 4.5 percent year on year. From January to September 2025, Japan's actual investment in China rose 55.5 percent.

Pang said Japan's post-election government now faces a crucial choice. "If it adopts a pragmatic approach and returns to cooperation, bilateral ties may stabilize. But if it continues to pursue a hardline path on China, it risks further shrinking its diplomatic room for maneuver, harming its own interests, and undermining regional stability in the Asia-Pacific," he said.