Why Japan's vote signals a dangerous shift to the right

Editor's note: Cao Cong, a special commentator for CGTN, is a doctoral candidate at the School of International Politics and Economics, University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

Japan's ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its partner Japan Innovation Party secured a two-thirds "super majority" in the House of Representatives, Japan's lower house, in the election on February 8. This outcome not only reflects a major shift in Japan's domestic political structure but also the nation's ongoing trend toward right-wing and conservative tendencies.

From the perspective of Japan's political ecology, the election outcome will further consolidate the dominance of conservative and hardline forces in the political arena.

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has long portrayed herself as a successor to Shinzo Abe, adopting radical positions on major issues such as security policy, constitutional revision and historical perception, and advocating a systematic restructuring of Japan's postwar order.

Against the backdrop of the LDP becoming the first single party since the postwar era to secure more than two-thirds of the seats in the House of Representatives, the existing checks and balances within Japan's political system have become increasingly ineffective. Policymaking will be more prone to ideological drivers rather than rational and prudent judgments based on national interests.

Particularly in security policy, Japan is likely to accelerate its military expansion.

Takaichi has explicitly called for a substantial strengthening of defense capabilities, revision of three key national defense and security policy documents, and the relaxation of restrictions on arms exports. She has also recently publicly declared the intent to enshrine the Self-Defense Forces through constitutional amendment. In essence, these measures aim to fundamentally alter the nature of Japan's postwar security policy by granting military forces greater legal and political latitude for outward deployment.

What is especially alarming is the Takaichi administration's revival of discussions surrounding the Three Non-Nuclear Principles: not possessing, not producing and not permitting the introduction of nuclear weapons into Japanese territory. These principles are not only a vital symbol of Japan's postwar security policy, but also an important institutional arrangement of the international nuclear non-proliferation regime.

Although practical constraints make a fundamental shift in Japan's nuclear policy unlikely in the short term, any ambiguous or wavering signals from the ruling authorities would carry grave symbolic and strategic consequences. Such moves could heighten regional security anxieties and strategic miscalculations, while simultaneously eroding international consensus and trust in nuclear non-proliferation efforts.

From the standpoint of the regional security environment, Japan's continued rightward political drift is likely to exacerbate instability in East Asia. In recent years, some Japanese politicians have repeatedly exaggerated so-called external threats, simplifying and polarizing complex regional issues in order to justify military expansion and institutional breakthroughs.

A security policy driven by confrontation instead of dialogue not only fails to address underlying problems, but risks amplifying divisions, intensifying tensions and increasing the likelihood of misjudgment and conflict.

In terms of economic development, the excessive politicization and ideological framing of security issues may also inflict long-term damage on the atmosphere of regional cooperation. Should Japan divert more resources and political attention toward military affairs, it would inevitably crowd out efforts to improve livelihoods and revive the economy, while undermining mutual trust in regional economic cooperation. At a time when global economic recovery remains fragile and regional development faces multiple uncertainties, such a course clearly runs counter to the shared interests of regional countries.

Moreover, Japan's policy direction carries implications that extend beyond the region. As a major developed economy and a key U.S. ally in the Asia-Pacific region, Japan should play a constructive role in upholding multilateralism and promoting international cooperation.

However, if Japan continues to cross red lines and challenge international consensus on security and historical issues, it will not only damage its own international credibility but also exert a negative impact on the international system centered on the United Nations and the international order based on international law.

Forces of reflection and restraint do exist within Japanese society. Voices that uphold the pacifist constitution, oppose military adventurism and advocate resolving disputes through dialogue have long held significant influence within Japanese society. Yet under the current electoral logic and media environment, these rational voices face the real risk of being marginalized.

How to uphold the bottom line of peace amid political maneuvering and prevent the nation from drifting toward strategic adventurism will test the maturity and sense of responsibility of Japanese politics.

History has long demonstrated that security cannot be built on confrontation, nor can development be achieved through zero-sum games. Japan's ability to attain long-term stability and development in the postwar period fundamentally stemmed from its adherence to the spirit of the pacifist constitution and its respect for the rules of the international order. Any attempt to deny this historical experience and pursue national revival through military expansion constitutes a disregard for the lessons of history.

The direction Japan ultimately takes will not only shape its own future, but will also profoundly affect peace and stability in the region and the wider world. The international community must remain highly vigilant against the dangerous rightward drift in Japan's political landscape, urging it to adhere to the path of peaceful development and earn the trust of its neighbors and the world through concrete actions. This is both a responsibility to history and a commitment to the future.

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