After the conclusion of the first round of negotiations with the United States in Oman on Friday, Iran warned that its ballistic missile program, one of the biggest in the Middle East, is a red line in any negotiations.

Due to years of U.S. sanctions and ongoing military threats from Israel, as well as the combined impact of its domestic political and economic factors, Iran has long regarded missile capabilities as a core and non-negotiable pillar of its defense strategy.

Iranian missile types and ranges

A ballistic missile is a rocket-propelled weapon that is guided during its initial ascent but follows a free-fall trajectory under gravity for most of its flight. It delivers warheads – containing either conventional explosives or potentially biological, chemical or nuclear munitions – over varying distances, with classifications ranging from short to intercontinental ranges depending on the missile type.

Western powers regard Iran's ballistic missile arsenal both as a conventional military threat to stability in the Middle East and a possible delivery mechanism for nuclear weapons, should Tehran develop them. Iran denies any intent to build atomic bombs.

Iran has the largest stockpile of ballistic missiles in the Middle East, according to the U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence. Iranian missiles have a self-imposed range of 2,000 kilometers, which officials have in the past said was enough to protect the country since it covers the distance to Israel.

Many of Iran's missile sites are located in and around the capital Tehran. There are at least five known underground "missile cities" in various provinces, including Kermanshah and Semnan, as well as near the Gulf region.

The arsenal encompasses multiple long-range missiles that can reach Israel, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies. It says these include the Sejil, with a range of 2,000 kilometers; Emad, 1,700 kilometers; Ghadr, 2,000 kilometers; Shahab-3, 1,300 kilometers; Khorramshahr, 2,000 kilometers; and Hoveyzeh, 1,350 kilometers.

The semi-official Iranian news outlet ISNA published a graphic in April 2025 showing nine Iranian missiles it said could reach Israel. These included the Sejil, which ISNA said was capable of flying at more than 17,000 kilometers per hour and had a range of 2,500 kilometers; the Kheibar, with a range of 2,000 kilometers; and the Haj Qasem, with a range of 1,400 kilometers.

According to the Arms Control Association, a Washington-based think tank, Iran's ballistic arsenal includes the Shahab-1, with an estimated range of 300 kilometers; the Zolfaghar with 700 kilometers; Shahab-3 with 800-1,000 kilometers; Emad-1, a missile under development with a range up to 2,000 kilometers, and a Sejil model under development with an expected range of 1,500-2,500 kilometers.

Israel unable to achieve 100% interception of Iranian missiles

Israel possesses a three-tiered missile defense system, including Iron Dome, David's Sling and Arrow series, but a considerable number of Iranian ballistic missiles still penetrated Israel's defenses during their conflict in 2025, during which Tehran fired salvoes of ballistic missiles into Israel, killing dozens of people and wrecking dozens of buildings and apartment blocks in the country's centre and north.

According to an analysis by the Institute for the Study of War and AEI Critical Threats Project, Israel "likely destroyed around a third of the Iranian missile launchers" during the conflict, which means Israel is unable to achieve 100 percent interception of Iranian missiles.

"Iran's missile capability can form an effective deterrent against the United States and Israel, and also serves as an important bargaining chip in negotiations with the U.S.," military commentator Wei Dongxu said in an interview with China Media Group.

Wei pointed out that due to the limitations of Israel's missile defense system, the country has adopted two countermeasures: First, producing more missile defense systems on its own and seeking U.S. assistance for American-made anti-missile equipment; second, pushing the United States to put forward harsher conditions in negotiations to restrict Iran's missile capabilities.

Analysts also believe that given Iran's current position of regarding its missile capability as a core pillar of its defense strategy, Iran will not back down or compromise on the issue. If the United States insists on demanding restrictions on Iran's missile capabilities during the negotiations, it could lead to the breakdown of the talks and greater uncertainty.

(With input from agencies)