A tactical shift, not a policy pivot: analysts see through Rubio's Munich overture

On Valentine's Day in Munich, Europe awoke to cautious relief from its biggest ally across the Atlantic.

One year after then-Munich Security Conference (MSC) head Christoph Heusgen called the 2025 edition a "European nightmare," U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Saturday promised that the destiny of the United States and Europe "is and will always be intertwined."

In a hinted nod to the damage done by U.S. Vice President JD Vance last year, Rubio dismissed perceptions of the end of the transatlantic era and reassured Europeans with the talk that the U.S. will "always be a child of Europe" at the 62nd MSC.

Reactions were mixed. Some in the room gave the top U.S. diplomat a round of applause. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said she was reassured by Rubio's message but made it clear that "some lines have been crossed that cannot be uncrossed."

Others sounded alarm. Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, chair of the European Parliament's defense committee, told media that Rubio's speech was a "poisoned declaration of love," saying there was nothing reassuring about it.

Wang Yiwei, director of the Center for European Studies at Renmin University of China, said Washington is apparently playing a "push-and-pull" game with Europe.

The U.S. hits Europe with hard-line policy demands, then pulls them back with talk of common values, Wang told CGTN from Munich.

Last year, it was a bombshell, and this year, it was damage control, Wang said of Washington's perceived performance at the security forum, noting that it is essentially selling a "grand promise" only.

Cui Hongjian, director of the Center for the European Union and Regional Development Studies at Beijing Foreign Studies University, shared the same view.

Cui, who also attended the MSC this year, said that from Washington's perspective, soothing European anxieties is in its own interest, as keeping transatlantic ties under intense strain serves no purpose.

Rubio's speech points only to a tactical shift, not a fundamental change, of the Trump administration's policy toward Europe, which is only part of its broader global strategy, Cui told CGTN.

By not directly addressing the Ukraine crisis, NATO's future, or the wider European security issue in his speech, the U.S. secretary of state is sending a clear signal: transatlantic relations will operate under an unmistakable dynamic of U.S. dominance and European subordination for the foreseeable future, he said.

Europe's approach to the changing relationship is striving for strategic autonomy in the long term, rolling out more tangible, visible, and sustainable policies and actions to offset the shock, Cui analyzed.

In his MSC speech, Rubio also defended some of the signature "America First" agenda under the Trump administration, attacking global trade, warning against mass migration, dismissing climate change and criticizing the United Nations. He called on Europe to join the path towards "a new century of prosperity" the Trump administration has embarked upon.

Cui said Rubio's remarks cater to domestic U.S. politics by championing the "America First" narrative American voters prioritize, especially with midterm elections approaching.

While his tone is less overtly interventionist than Vance's, Rubio still delivered a tough message to Europe: alignment with U.S. strategy is non-negotiable, regardless of European understanding or agreement, Cui said.

(Yang Yiran contributed to the story.)