As Munich Security Conference 2026 ends, Europe's awakening just begins

Editor's Note: Zhou Dewu is a former deputy editor-in-chief of Ta Kung Pao newspaper and a veteran U.S. watcher. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily those of CGTN.

The 62nd Munich Security Conference (MSC) was held from February 13 to 15 in Munich, Bavaria, Germany, drawing 70 heads of state and government, over 140 ministers, and more than 40 leaders of international organizations for the annual global security debate.

With the Russia-Ukraine conflict unresolved and the Greenland dispute adding new tensions, U.S.-Europe relations have plummeted to their lowest point since the founding of NATO in 1949, making this year's conference particularly scrutinized. The U.S. delegation was led by Marco Rubio, who currently serves as both secretary of state and national security advisor. Rubio is considered one of the few establishment figures in the Trump administration who spare no effort in maintaining transatlantic ties. Last October, when a leaked, one-sided draft proposal suggested how the U.S. and Russia would like to resolve the Ukraine crisis, it sparked outrage across Europe as well as Ukraine; it was Rubio who eventually stepped in to salvage some dignity for the European side.

Rubio's presence appeared to be a last straw for European leaders to grasp at. Meanwhile, prominent Democrats eyeing the 2028 presidency – such as California Governor Gavin Newsom and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez – also arrived in Munich. They labeled Trump a "transitional figure," promising that in three years, U.S.-Europe relations would return to those good old days.

Compared to the sharp criticisms leveled by Vice President JD Vance at last year's MSC, Rubio's language this year was far more temperate. He spoke at length about shared history, culture and religious ties across the Atlantic, famously stating: "our home may be in the Western Hemisphere, but we will always be a child of Europe." He argued that the blunt criticisms from Trump and Vance stemmed from caring about Europe, suggesting that America can only thrive if Europe thrives. While these words left European elites feeling relieved and delighted, sweet talk cannot make them lower their guard, nor can it repair a deeply damaged relationship. Crucially, it cannot alter Trump's fundamental shift in perspective: seeing Europe as a burden that America must shed, forcing Europe to take primary responsibility for its own defense.

The European response: Unity and autonomy

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz emphasized the importance of unity across Europe, warning that the U.S. would regret if it left NATO, and that Europe must build a European pillar within the alliance to ensure its safety. French President Emmanuel Macron slammed the U.S. for its "caricature" of Europe, asserting that Europe does not lack institutional design for prosperity or security – it only lacks confidence. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen declared that in today's fragmented world, Europe must become more independent and autonomous. Other European representatives stressed that a peace deal over Ukraine must not be rushed and must ensure that "aggression" never happens again. A consensus is forming among major European powers to provide Ukraine with security guarantees by forming a peacekeeping force of 7,000 to 10,000 to serve as a deterrent.

Europe's desperate attempt to retain the U.S. is rooted in history. Emerging from the ruins of WWII, Europe was forced into a "leader-follower" dynamic and underwent a "genetic modification" by the U.S. The founding of NATO placed collective security under an American umbrella. Weary of war, Europe was happy to take a "free ride" on American security. However, this "boiling frog" effect caused European defense capabilities to atrophy. In the economic sphere, the European Coal and Steel Community, predecessor of the European Union, focused on managing the raw materials of war to prevent internal conflict, never prioritizing military construction – until the Russia-Ukraine conflict exposed the fatal flaws in the European security architecture.

The Ukraine crisis has been a litmus test for European military strength. While Europe has the will to defend Ukraine's sovereignty, it lacks the military muscle to deter Russia. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte was blunt: if European lawmakers think they can defend themselves without the U.S., they are dreaming. Harsh as it is, this is the reality.

The way forward: De-risking from America

Rubio's comfort is only temporary; none of the Trump administration's harsh and urgent demands of Europe will change. Trump exploited a divided American electorate to win the election, and in the transatlantic sphere, he plays the same role of a "disrupter."

Ironically, the term "de-risking," originally tailored by von der Leyen for China, is now being applied to the U.S. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas noted that the American distancing from Europe is "structural, not temporary." Consequently, European leaders have recently visited China to hedge against American risks. While the trend towards China is growing, Europe's diplomatic maneuvers currently remain high on caution but low on courage.

As the MSC closed, Rubio remained silent on Russia, and U.S. ambitions regarding Greenland showed no sign of stopping. As MSC Chairman Wolfgang Ischinger noted in his closing remarks, there is a growing doubt as to whether the U.S. and Europe still share common values or belong to the same team.

The conference was over, but Europe's awakening has just begun. The Atlantic is widening, but whether Europe and Asia will draw closer depends on whether Europe can "reset" its strategic thinking. Europe does not lack opportunity; it lacks the vision to discover it. Only by boldly embracing China will Europe find its future.