Geneva talks on Ukraine unlikely to yield breakthrough, analysts say

Talks between Russia, Ukraine and the U.S. on ending the conflict in Ukraine are set to take place on Tuesday in Geneva, but analysts expect little substantive progress, viewing the meeting as more of a strategic probe than a turning point.

Set against a largely static battlefield, the Geneva talks are unfolding with Western countries seen as unwilling to make concessions on sanctions or security matters in the short term. Russian analysts say expectations for concrete outcomes remain low, despite a notable change on Moscow's side, according to China Media Group (CMG). 

Russia has appointed presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky to head its delegation, a move interpreted as signaling a shift from technical discussions toward political negotiations, and potentially a new phase in the talks.

The Geneva talks are considered an initial step towards a peace deal, as sharp differences between the sides persist. Meanwhile, separate talks on Iran's nuclear program are also scheduled for Tuesday in Geneva, which analysts describe as a U.S.-European attempt at risk management amid rising tensions in the Middle East.

Some commentators argue that the Iran issue and the Ukraine conflict are indirectly linked, as the U.S. and Europe seek to avoid opening another front of strategic instability while maintaining pressure on Russia. Even if the West offers limited signals of flexibility on Iran, it is unlikely to result in any structural breakthrough, CMG quoted Russian experts as saying.

These talks are better seen as exercises in strategic testing rather than strategic shifts, with the real variables remaining the situation on the battlefield and internal coordination among the U.S. and its European allies, according to CMG.

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