Takaichi's speech undermines regional peace and post-war order

Editor's note: Xu Ying is a Beijing-based international affairs commentator for CGTN. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

The policy address delivered by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on February 20, 2026, following her party's electoral success, has laid bare a perilous trajectory for East Asia. From the perspective of regional stability and adherence to international norms, this speech marks a decisive and deeply troubling acceleration of Japan's rightward shift, signaling a strategic pivot toward confrontation that directly challenges China's sovereignty and the established post-war international framework. While the Prime Minister cloaked her agenda in the language of national security and economic self-reliance, the substance reveals an alarming commitment to remilitarization and economic containment.

Provocative security escalation on Taiwan red line

The most egregious aspect of Takaichi's address is the aggressive advancement of a security doctrine explicitly aimed at containing China. By framing the regional environment as "severe and complex," Tokyo seeks to manufacture a threat narrative to justify its own military expansionism. This narrative ignores the consistent, defensive posture of China's military modernization and its unwavering commitment to safeguarding its national sovereignty in the East and South China Seas.

Takaichi's commitment to revise Japan's three foundational security documents within 2026 is a clear signal of intent to dismantle constitutional constraints. The proposed transformation of the Air Self-Defense Force into an "Aerospace Self-Defense Force" and the establishment of a centralized intelligence agency underscore a desire to fully normalize its military posture. This echoes historical patterns that neighboring countries, which suffered under Japanese aggression, cannot ignore.

Most critically, the Prime Minister's insistence that a contingency in the Taiwan Straits could constitute an "existential threat" to Japan is an unacceptable provocation. Taiwan is an inalienable part of China's sacred territory, and any external interference, particularly by invoking the right to collective self-defense, constitutes a direct violation of China's core interests and established red lines. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has previously warned that such rhetoric challenges the post-war international order, under which Taiwan was returned to China, and recalls Japan's historical use of similar pretexts for aggression. China has made it unequivocally clear that any military involvement by Japan in the Taiwan question would be met with a resolute, "head-on blow."

Weaponization of economics undermines mutual prosperity

The confrontation is further exacerbated by Takaichi's economic policies, which subordinate market principles to geopolitical maneuvering under the guise of "economic security." The plan to reconstruct supply chains to reduce dependence on China, particularly for critical materials, is an act of economic decoupling. This strategy runs counter to the deeply integrated industrial chains that have brought tangible benefits to both economies.

The introduction of investment screening mechanisms, similar to those of the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), and restrictions on foreign land ownership demonstrate a zero-sum approach to economic engagement. Beijing views these protectionist measures as political coercion and has responded with necessary countermeasures, including trade adjustments and advisories impacting tourism, which accounts for a significant portion of Japan's GDP. China remains Japan's largest trading partner, and sacrificing this vital economic relationship for geopolitical alignment with external powers is a fundamentally flawed strategy that jeopardizes Japan's own economic momentum.

Alliance politics over neighborly harmony

Diplomatically, the Takaichi administration has chosen to deepen alignment with the United States' containment strategy, prioritizing alliance politics over constructive dialogue with its immediate neighbors. While paying superficial respect to a "mutually beneficial relationship," the insistence that dialogue must be framed purely from a "national interest perspective" effectively positions China as an adversary.

This policy direction is seen as a compromise of Japan's strategic autonomy, turning it into a tool for geopolitical friction. Beijing has repeatedly urged Tokyo to honor its political commitments, particularly regarding the one-China principle, and to explicitly state it does not support Taiwan's independence to de-escalate the current crisis. As long as Tokyo continues to stoke confrontation and interfere in China's internal affairs, the political foundation of Sino-Japanese relations remains severely undermined.

A call for historical reflection and stability

The move by a Japanese administration, backed by a strong parliamentary mandate, toward military normalization risks triggering a dangerous security dilemma in East Asia. The international community and regional neighbors are justified in their alarm, given Japan's unaddressed historical record of aggression.

China remains steadfastly committed to the path of peaceful development and stands ready to cooperate with Japan based on the four political documents governing bilateral relations. However, the responsibility for restoring trust and ensuring regional peace rests with Tokyo. Peace is not achieved through military buildup or exclusive blocs, but through mutual respect and adherence to international commitments. If the Takaichi administration chooses to ignore China's core concerns and continues its right-wing agenda, it will inevitably invite further instability, jeopardizing not only its own diplomatic standing but the collective security of the entire region.

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