Editor's note: Liu Lirong, a special commentator on current affairs for CGTN, is associate professor at the Institute of International Studies, Fudan University. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz will pay an official visit to China from February 25 to 26. His first visit to China is primarily aimed at identifying pragmatic opportunities for cooperation.

At a time of growing geopolitical fragmentation, the rules-based international order is under increasing strain. The uncertainty surrounding US trade policy has placed additional pressure on Germany, while strategic disputes, including Greenland tensions, have further complicated transatlantic relations. Against this backdrop of policy unpredictability, Germany is seeking to strengthen economic ties with major global economies such as China in order to offset systemic uncertainty with greater strategic stability.

Germany's China policy has recently shown signs of recalibration. Rather than fully shifting away from risk management, Berlin is attempting to strike a more balanced approach between viewing Beijing as a systemic rival and as an indispensable economic partner.

The Merz government initially aligned closely with the European Union's de-risking framework. Over time, however, economic pressures and geopolitical tensions have pushed Germany toward a more pragmatic diplomatic posture. In November 2025, during the G20 summit in Johannesburg, Merz described China as "an important trading partner for Germany." In a speech delivered one week before his visit to China, he further emphasized that Germany seeks diversified strategic partnerships and aims to include China within a global cooperation framework oriented toward "shaping the future together."

Merz's pragmatic China policy reflects several strategic and economic considerations.

First, Germany is facing mounting domestic economic pressures. Revitalizing economic growth has become the central priority of the Merz government. Germany experienced two consecutive years of economic stagnation in 2023 and 2024, with only modest recovery signals emerging in 2025.

Structural challenges – including high energy costs, weak global demand and industrial transition pressures – have undermined Germany's export-driven growth model. To restore its competitiveness, Germany urgently needs structural reforms and expanded international partnerships. As a result, economic diplomacy has once again become a core instrument of foreign policy.

Moreover, Germany is seeking to hedge against US tariff and trade policy risks. Among European economies, Germany remains particularly exposed to transatlantic trade tensions. The United States continues to be Germany's largest export market, and Germany maintains a substantial trade surplus with the US. However, German exports to the United States declined significantly in 2025 due to US tariff policies. Given the economic asymmetry between the two economies, Germany's policy options remain limited.

In contrast, China-Germany trade stabilized and recovered during the same period, with China once again becoming Germany's largest trading partner, surpassing the United States. In an era of global market fragmentation, strengthening economic ties between the world's second- and third-largest economies is increasingly important for maintaining supply chain stability.

In addition, China's global influence continues to expand. At the World Economic Forum in Davos in 2026, Merz noted that China, with strategic foresight, has worked its way into the ranks of the great powers. This reflects a broader recognition in European policy circles that global power competition is increasingly shaped by economic and technological capabilities rather than purely military strength. Compared with the United States, China is often perceived by European policymakers as pursuing more consistent long-term economic strategies, contributing to perceptions of policy predictability.

Merz has also sought to position Germany as a "strong and responsible European partner" capable of playing a more active role in global security and governance. While Germany will continue cooperation with the United States, Berlin is increasingly seeking to diversify its network of strategic partnerships rather than relying exclusively on the traditional transatlantic framework.

Furthermore, Germany's business community continues to play a significant role in shaping China policy. Economic and trade relations remain the foundation of China-Germany relations. Faced with weak global demand and industrial competitiveness challenges, many German corporations have expressed preference for economically pragmatic rather than value-driven foreign policy approaches. Merz has traditionally maintained close ties with Germany's industrial sector, which is likely to influence a more flexible approach to de-risking policies.

Meanwhile, China's rapid progress in electric vehicles and artificial intelligence is accelerating global technological competition. As a leading manufacturing and export economy, Germany faces increasing competitive pressure from China, particularly in third markets. However, shifts in global competitiveness are also closely linked to structural challenges within Europe itself.

The European Commission has framed its economic security strategy around three policy dimensions: "protect" (safeguarding economic security), "promote" (strengthening competitiveness) and "partner" (deepening cooperation with like-minded countries). France has tended to emphasize the protect dimension, advocating stronger trade safeguards, while Germany has traditionally prioritized "promote" and "partner," focusing on enhancing industrial competitiveness and maintaining open trade channels.

In an era of deglobalization, China remains one of the largest and fastest-growing mature markets for European exporters. At the same time, Germany's economic momentum has weakened, while structural reforms in energy and climate policy remain politically difficult. Given growing uncertainty in transatlantic relations and the shifting geopolitical environment, maintaining stable cooperation between China and Germany remains strategically important.

(If you want to contribute and have specific expertise, please contact us at opinions@cgtn.com. Follow @thouse_opinions on X, formerly Twitter, to discover the latest commentaries in the CGTN Opinion Section.)