Editor's note: Xiu Chunmin is director of the German Communication Research Center, Academy of International and Regional Communication Studies, Communication University of China. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

At the invitation of Chinese Premier Li Qiang, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is now paying an official visit to China from February 25 to 26. This marks Merz's first trip to China since taking office in May 2025, making him the latest in a growing list of top European leaders, following French President Emmanuel Macron at the end of 2025 and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer at the beginning of 2026, who have recently traveled to Beijing. In today's global context, the visit is widely seen as "late in the game" yet still significant, a trip woven through with complex economic realities and profound geopolitical shifts.

Merz's visit comes at a time when Germany is navigating three pressing challenges: domestic economic pressures, turbulent transatlantic relations and the need to recalibrate its ties with China.

While the previous German government pushed a "de-risking" strategy toward China, economic forces have proven hard to resist. Data released by Germany's Federal Statistical Office on February 20 shows that in 2025, China overtook the US to become Germany's largest trading partner once again, with bilateral trade volume reaching €251.8 billion ($296.6 billion), a 2.1% year-on-year increase. In contrast, German-US trade fell by 5% amid tariff disputes. Meanwhile, German investment in China hit a four-year high in 2025. This "cold politics, hot economics" phenomenon points to a fundamental reality: The economic ties between Germany and China cannot be easily severed or weakened. As Volker Treier, head of foreign trade at the Association of German Chambers of Industry and Commerce, called for stronger cooperation ahead of Merz's visit, China is proving to be a more predictable partner than today's US in areas like environmental and medical technologies.

The timing of this visit is particularly delicate: Transatlantic relations are being rocked by the increasingly unpredictable "Trump factor." Washington's erratic behavior has shifted its image in European eyes from a guardian of order to a potential disruptor. While not all of China's proposals may align perfectly with German interests, China continues to advocate for multilateralism and a rules-based world order, a stark contrast to current US approaches.

Against this backdrop, Germany and, more broadly, Europe are seeking a diplomatic rebalancing. Merz's itinerary, prioritizing India before China, sends its own signal, but with US policy uncertainty looming, stabilizing and deepening ties with Beijing has become a pragmatic choice for managing risk and ensuring economic security.

It has taken Merz nearly a year since taking office to make this visit, with bilateral relations lingering in a somewhat uncertain adjustment period. On the one hand, Germany's business community urgently wants to maintain and deepen cooperation with China. On the other hand, skepticism persists within German political circles on diplomatic and security issues, with both "cooperation" and "caution" camps making their voices heard.

One of the core tasks of this summit diplomacy, then, is to set the direction and tone for Sino-German relations over the next three years. Merz has done his homework. Before departure, he invited several China experts to the Chancellery for dinner to discuss, demonstrating a genuine desire to understand China and establish direct, meaningful communication with the Chinese leadership. The recent visits by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer to Beijing, both aimed at warming relations after years of distance, have not gone unnoticed in Berlin either.

The two-day visit features a carefully arranged schedule spanning politics, economics and technology.

The centerpiece will undoubtedly be the talks between Chinese and German leaders, where both sides will discuss the strategic framework for bilateral relations and lay the groundwork for future cooperation. Observers are keenly watching whether both countries can send a joint message advocating stability and multilateralism amid a turbulent international landscape.

Merz is accompanied by a business delegation of roughly 30 top German executives, heavyweights from Volkswagen, Siemens, BMW, Bayer, Adidas and others, making this one of the largest German business delegations to China since the Angela Merkel era. This speaks volumes about Germany's economic focus, as both sides look beyond traditional strengths to explore cooperation in the digital economy, artificial intelligence, green transformation and other emerging sectors.

Beyond Beijing, Merz will travel to Hangzhou to visit Unitree Robotics, a Chinese robotics company. This thoughtful arrangement signals Germany's clear recognition of China's competitive edge and technological strength. It is not just about seeking cooperation but also about Germany experiencing and learning from China's development firsthand, a crucial step in updating perceptions.

Looking ahead, Sino-German relations are entering a more complex yet pragmatic phase, with their interaction potentially serving as both a stabilizer and a microcosm of broader China-EU relations.

The era of simple economic complementarity between Germany and China is gradually giving way to one of intense industrial competition. China's rise in high-end manufacturing and technology has undoubtedly put pressure on German companies. However, as German business leaders have come to recognize, turning a blind eye to China's market and innovation potential means missing out on global growth opportunities. Future cooperation will likely follow a new model: finding collaborative elements within competition while avoiding unnecessary friction. Both sides may move beyond simple buyer-seller relationships toward deeper cooperation in setting standards and rules in areas like new energy, AI governance and financial opening up.

Germany's complicated domestic sentiment toward China, combined with protectionist tendencies at the EU level, remains a challenge for bilateral relations. Differences persist on issues involving the Russia-Ukraine conflict, among others. But Merz's approach with this visit seems to be joining the "open dialogue friends club," keeping communication channels open even when conversations get tough. How well both sides manage political differences without allowing them to derail economic cooperation will be crucial to stable relations in the future.

The US factor will inevitably influence the future of Sino-German relations. The uncertainty brought by the Trump administration has paradoxically pushed Europe toward greater "strategic autonomy," creating space for deeper Sino-German and EU-China ties.

Yet the transatlantic alliance has not entirely faded, and pressure from pro-US forces in both America and within the EU will persist. Whether Sino-German relations can withstand this pressure and maintain their mutually beneficial, pragmatic direction will determine their ability to inject much-needed stability into a turbulent world.

In summary, Merz's first visit in the Year of the Horse is far from ceremonial. It represents a critical step for Germany to safeguard its economic lifelines, and diplomatic space amid intersecting domestic and external pressures. If the right tone and direction are set, Sino-German ties could enter a "new normal" – more mature, pragmatic and better able to balance cooperation and competition.

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