China's zero-tariff policy and Africa's industrialization drive

Starting May 1, 2026, China will eliminate tariffs on all imports from the 53 African countries with which it has diplomatic relations, a move expected to accelerate industrialization and economic development across the continent.

What impact will this comprehensive zero-tariff arrangement have on African economies and on broader global trade dynamics? And how should African exporters position themselves to tap into China's vast consumer and industrial markets at this pivotal moment?

Zhou Mi, Senior Research Fellow at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, and Charles Onunaiju, Director of the Center for China Studies in Nigeria, share their views.

A structural opportunity for Africa

Charles Onunaiju described the policy as a milestone moment.

"Africa has continuously maintained for more trade, not aid. Access to a 1.4 billion unified national market is absolutely the kind of opportunity Africa has been looking forward to."

He argued that the most immediate impact will be structural transformation. Many African economies remain commodity-dependent, often exporting raw materials with limited value addition. Zero tariffs could encourage domestic processing and industrialization.

"African products will now enjoy access to the Chinese market. A little measure of processing with a view to add value will have to happen, thereby triggering industrialization, even if marginal at first, it could grow."

Onunaiju noted that countries already exporting products such as Kenyan avocados, South African spices, and Zambian meat and honey are well positioned to benefit early. However, he emphasized that preparedness will determine who moves fastest:

"The question of who takes advantage first has to do with who read the lines much earlier, who saw this coming, and who repositioned their domestic economy."

China's opening-up in the 15th Five-Year Plan

Zhou Mi framed the decision within China's broader development strategy.

"China is trying to share the benefits of our market with our friends, especially from Africa."

He pointed out that trade between China and Africa has been growing faster than China's overall trade, calling it "a very important signal" of deepening engagement. Eliminating tariffs, he added, is essential to offset logistical costs and enhance African exporters' competitiveness.

"China wants to increase the competitiveness of exporters from African countries and make their products more competitive in China's market."

For African exporters, Zhou suggested focusing not only on market access but also on upgrading quality, improving standards, and integrating into global value chains.

Value addition, not just volume

While zero tariffs remove a major barrier, both experts stressed that domestic reforms in Africa remain critical.

Charles Onunaiju highlighted key constraints:

Standardization of products across the African Continental Free Trade Area

Access to finance and credit

Logistics and infrastructure

Security and institutional transparency

"If we are to take advantage of this market access, a whole lot of work has to be done at home. It doesn't happen on its own."

He argued that value addition will give African producers greater control over pricing and shield them from volatile commodity markets:

"Where you add value, you have relative control over pricing. These are advantages that come with value addition."

Investment and industrial cooperation

Zhou Mi emphasized that trade liberalization should go hand in hand with investment flows.

"It is important for African countries to provide a stable and transparent environment, so investors from everywhere in the world, including China, have more intention to invest."

He also encouraged two-way engagement, welcoming African entrepreneurs to explore opportunities in China. With rapid advances in artificial intelligence and digital trade, closer collaboration could accelerate technology transfer and innovation.

Onunaiju pointed to practical examples of adaptation of China's development experience in Africa, including:

Special Economic Zones such as Nigeria's Lekki Free Trade Zone

The rise of e-commerce and digital trade

Infrastructure-led industrial policy

These initiatives, he said, have already laid the groundwork for deeper industrial cooperation.

（This newsletter was generated with the help of AI, drawing on the discussion transcript.）