Editor's Note: China will hold its annual Two Sessions in early March. Ahead of this year's key political meetings, CGTN presents a special series, China Agenda, offering multi-angle insights into China's whole-process people's democracy, its socio-economic achievements, and the development vision outlined in the 15th Five-Year Plan.

The year 2025 marked the conclusion of China's 14th Five-Year Plan. Over the past five years, in the face of multiple shocks, China charted a high-quality development course through deepened reform and opening up. With balanced development and security as the bottom-line requirement, the country has delivered solid and notable achievements. Now, standing at the starting line of the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030), a new blueprint is already taking shape. History and the future converge here: we have every reason to celebrate the achievements of the past, and even greater confidence in the journey ahead.

Based on this high-level platform, the 15th Five-Year Plan will focus on the central task of "comprehensively advancing the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation through a Chinese path to modernization and ensuring decisive progress in basically realizing socialist modernization by 2035." It aims to achieve breakthroughs in the following key areas.

Seizing high ground in sci-tech with new system for mobilizing resources nationwide

The 15th Five-Year Plan period will focus on cutting-edge fields such as artificial intelligence, quantum information, brain science and aerospace technology, carrying out key national science and technology projects that are strategic, comprehensive and forward-looking.

At the policy level, China is expected to establish a synergistic mechanism that connects the entire chain from "basic research to technological breakthroughs, application scenarios and industrial transformation." Here's how it will work: central fiscal funds will adopt a "project-leader selection" model; local governments will "strengthen the foundations" by building pilot and testing bases; state-owned enterprises, private enterprises, higher education institutions and research institutes will "collaboratively address shared challenges;" and venture capital and long-term investment will "guide development through funding." The goal is to remove bottlenecks and obstacles in translating technological advantages into economic benefits.

Leading green industrial revolution with 'dual carbon 2.0'

In the next five years, China will shift from dual controls on energy consumption to dual controls on carbon emissions, establish a nationwide unified carbon footprint database, expand the industry coverage of the national carbon market in a timely manner, and explore the integrated trading of carbon emission rights, energy use rights, water use rights, and pollutant discharge rights. 

It is estimated that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, the proportion of non-fossil energy in primary energy consumption will reach around 25 percent, the compound annual growth rate of new energy storage installed capacity will remain above 50 percent, and zero-carbon industries such as green methanol, green hydrogen, and sustainable aviation fuel will move from demonstration applications to large-scale applications.

Building a smart China through 'all-domain digitalization'

The development of Digital China will advance from the "consumer internet" to an expanded version of the "industrial internet."

For instance, 5G-A/6G and integrated satellite-terrestrial networks will be fully deployed, the industrial internet identification and resolution system will cover all major industrial categories, and digital twin watersheds, cities, and power grids will become standard components of new infrastructure. 

The foundational institutional system for data elements will be fully established. For instance, public data will be "opened to the fullest extent possible;" enterprise data will be "traded to the fullest extent feasible;" and personal data will be "controllable and measurable." In the future, a "data production tax" under the GDP framework is likely to be piloted.

Using 'high-quality population development' to improve people's livelihood

During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, as the total population reaches a turning point, China's policy focus will shift from "quantity growth" to "quality improvement." 

On the one hand, the fertility support system will be upgraded: expanding special additional deductions for individual income tax, providing financial subsidies for multi-child families, implementing shared parental leave, and ensuring universal childcare facilities with "one center per community." On the other hand, a silver economy will emerge: a coordinated service network integrating home-based, community-based, and institutional care, combined with medical, health, and wellness services, will be essentially established. Besides, the long-term care insurance system will achieve nationwide coverage, while age-friendly renovations will drive a trillion-yuan market in sectors such as home furnishings, transportation, culture and tourism.

Through a combination of measures to "increase high-income earners, expand the middle-income group, and raise low-income earners," the goal is to achieve a substantial expansion of the middle-income group over the next 10 to 15 years. 

At the institutional level, an upgraded version of the "integrated and classified individual income tax system" may be introduced, with property tax legislation and pilot programs advancing simultaneously, alongside the initiation of research on inheritance tax and capital gains tax. Additionally, efforts will be made to improve the minimum wage system, collective bargaining mechanisms and salary guidelines for skilled workers, ensuring that labor compensation keeps pace with productivity growth.

Linking dual circulation with 'institutional opening up'

During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, China is positioning itself for substantial breakthroughs in joining the Digital Economy Partnership Agreement and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership. 

The number of items on the national version of the negative list for foreign investment access will be reduced to under 20, while the comprehensive pilot program for opening up the service sector will be expanded in a phased manner in northeast, central and western China. 

The strategy for upgrading pilot free trade zones will advance. The "frontline liberalization" and "second-line control" model from Hainan's 2025 island-wide customs closure will be applied to major platforms such as Pudong, Hengqin and Qianhai. At the same time, the Chinese currency renminbi, or the yuan, will evolve from a trade settlement currency to an investment and reserve currency, with offshore renminbi markets flourishing across multiple locations.

However, it is worth staying alert. The external environment for China's modernization and the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation has become increasingly complex and severe. Challenges such as "small yard with high fence" and "decoupling and severing industrial chains" continue to intensify. 

Domestically, the triple pressures of contracting demand, supply shocks and weakening expectations have not been fundamentally alleviated. Risks in areas such as local finance, real estate and small and medium-sized financial institutions remain at elevated levels. 

That said, the past five years have proven that crises can catalyze reform, and external pressures can drive internal progress. By advancing comprehensive and deep reforms and expanding opening up, pursuing an innovation-driven development strategy, and upholding a people-centered development philosophy, China will continue to navigate through storms and waves.

(Xia Lu is a research fellow at the National Academy for Development and Strategy of Renmin University of China and deputy dean of the School of Marxism Studies at Xinjiang University. Gao Lei is an associate professor and research fellow at the Collaboration Centre for Theories and Practice of Open Economy, Center for Xi Jinping Thought on Opening-up, Research Institute of Globalization and China's Modernization, University of International Business & Economics. The article reflects the authors' opinions and not necessarily those of CGTN.)