U.S.-Iran talks have turned into a full-on conflict for the second time. On February 28, Israel launched a "preemptive strike" on major cities and military installations across Iran. U.S. President Donald Trump, following Israel's initial strike, released a statement on Truth Social saying the U.S. military also took part in this "major combat operation."

"We are going to destroy their missiles and raze their missile industry to the ground, we are going to annihilate their navy," Trump said in the statement. "We will ensure that Iran does not obtain a nuclear weapon. It's a very simple message. They will never have a nuclear weapon."

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu cemented the goal of regime change in Iran during a public statement released shortly after Trump's, describing the operation as aimed at removing "an existential threat from Iran regime".

The way peace talks collapsed into a full-on conflict, with Israel launching the first strike, resembles the 12-day tit-for-tat war back in June 2025, crippling three Iranian nuclear facilities. The strike, coded "Operation Midnight Hammer", was initiated by Israeli forces on June 22, which was later joined by the U.S. military, following five rounds of fruitless talks between the U.S. and Iran. 

Israel, being the "model U.S. ally" according to the Trump administration, has consistently been a significant factor in steering the direction of U.S. diplomacy. 

How did diplomacy fail again between the U.S. and Iran?

Hours before the strike, Trump expressed dissatisfaction with the progress of the peace talks.

"They should make a deal, but they don't want to go far enough, and it's too bad," Trump said on Friday.

"I say no enrichment, not 20 percent, 30 percent," Trump told reporters, adding that he will not be satisfied with Iran limiting its uranium enrichment even for civilian use only. 

Iran has already made unprecedented concessions regarding its nuclear enrichment capabilities. Earlier this week, an Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran would seriously consider sending half of its most highly enriched uranium abroad, diluting the rest while jointly creating a regional enrichment consortium. 

Iranian delegates have also reported agreeing on giving up the country's ability to stockpile enriched nuclear material, a step essential for creating a nuclear weapon, according to Badr Albusaidi, the Omani foreign minister who has been mediating the Iran-U.S. talks.

"The single most important achievement… is the agreement that Iran will never, ever have a nuclear material that will create a bomb," Minister Albusaidi told CBS News during a Friday interview. "This is something that is not in the old deal that was negotiated during President Obama's time."

"There is no accumulation, so there would be zero stockpiling and full verification," said Albusaidi, claiming Iran has agreed to allow the IAEA and "even United States inspectors" full access to their uranium stockpiles.

As a party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, Iran has the right to enrich uranium for purposes other than building nuclear weapons, which Iran has promised never do. 

Iran's ballistic missile: A major obstacle engineered into the nuclear talks

Although Iran has insisted multiple times that it will only discuss nuclear-related subjects in talks with the U.S., officials in the Trump administration have made Iran's ballistic missile program a major obstacle to making a deal. 

"They attempted to rebuild their nuclear program and to continue developing long-range missiles that can now threaten our very good friends and allies in Europe, our troops stationed overseas and could soon reach the American homeland," said Trump in his statement after launching the strike against Iran on Saturday.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Friday described the Iranian missile program as a "major problem" and would have to be addressed eventually.

According to Rubio, Iran possessed a very large number of ballistic missiles that were "designed solely to strike America" and its regional interests.

"Iran is only willing to discuss the nuclear issue, not the ballistic missile, as the country believes it to be the last resort defending Iran's national security," said Professor Sun Degang, director of the Center for Middle East Studies at Fudan University. 

"The ballistic missile issue has become an irreconcilable contradiction between the US and Iran," Professor Sun added. 

"Currently, Iran does not possess long-range ballistic missile technology, nor does it have any long-range ballistic missiles. Iranian missiles pose no threats to the United States," said Sun.

The U.S. intelligence reports suggest Trump and Rubio have exaggerated the capability of Iranian ballistic missiles, as reported earlier by Reuters. An unclassified 2025 U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency assessment determined Iran could take until 2035 to develop a "militarily viable intercontinental ballistic missile" (ICBM) from its existing satellite-lofting space-launch vehicles (SLV).

The missile arsenal Iran currently possesses does pose a threat to the U.S. allies in the Middle East, with Israel being the top target, said Sun, citing Iran's retaliation against Israeli military installations during the Twelve-Day War last year.

What is Israel hoping to achieve amid the U.S.-Iran tension? 

While the United States prioritizes Iran's decision not to develop nuclear weapons, Israel expects Iran to become "a docile, pro-Western 'paper tiger,'" said Professor Sun.

This requires Iran to scrap its intermediate-range ballistic missiles, give up its nuclear capabilities and its ability to support regional proxies, the three major deterrence factors Iran relies on to ensure the survival of the Islamic Republic, according to Sun. 

According to Sun, the ballistic missiles remain the only viable deterrent Iran has left, making it an uncompromisable issue for Iran to give up. Since Hamas launched Operation Al-Aqsa Flood in October 2023, provoking a long-lasting Israeli occupation of the West Bank and attacks against Iran-backed militant groups, Iranian proxies have suffered heavy losses. 

"The Israeli government does not believe there is a peaceful resolution to the Iranian nuclear issue," said Sun.  "Israel views the nuclear issue as only a part of the Iranian problem; the ultimate goal Israel wants to achieve is to overthrow the current Iranian government."

Will a peace deal between the U.S. and Iran ever be possible with Israel's involvement?

"Israel has consistently opposed any compromise between the United States and Iran," Sun said, adding that Israel's preemptive strike against Iran in 2025 has made Iran believe that the U.S. was deliberately using negotiations as a pretext to lull Iran into a false sense of security, and to cover up Israel's surprise attack. 

Netanyahu has been warning of the imminence of Iran reaching the nuclear threshold for more than 30 years. At the United Nations General Assembly in 2012, Netanyahu used a cartoon drawing of a bomb as a visual aid for his claim that Iran would achieve weapon-grade uranium "by next spring, at most by next summer."

Israel's long-lasting regional ambition is backed by the U.S.'s firm support for Israel's sovereignty, security and practical interests, said Professor Sun, citing a remark made by Mike Huckabee, the U.S. Ambassador to Israel.

Huckabee defended Israel's right to expand its territory, citing biblical precedent, on February 22 during an interview with Tucker Carlson, a U.S. media personality. "It would be fine if they took it all, but I don't think that's what we’re talking about here today," Huckabee said as he discussed his Christian Zionist beliefs.

The remark later incited a protest among more than a dozen Arab and Muslim nations, including U.S. allies Qatar and Saudi Arabia, whose Foreign Minister said Huckabee's claim was "extremist rhetoric."

"The Trump administration's support for Israel without principle has weakened the cooperation between the U.S. and its Middle Eastern allies," said Sun.