The confirmed death of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Sunday marks a pivotal moment for the Islamic Republic. As the country enters an uncharted phase, critical questions emerge: Will the leadership transition trigger political turbulence at home? Could regional tensions escalate further? And can Washington and Israel translate military pressure into lasting strategic gains?

Experts told CGTN that while Khamenei's death is highly consequential, a systemic collapse of Iran's political order is unlikely. Iran, they argue, lacks a credible opposition figure outside the existing system capable of leading a transition. Even if significant political change occurs, any new leadership is more likely to emerge from within the current establishment rather than from outside it.

At the same time, analysts caution that military strikes alone – without the deployment of ground forces – carry significant uncertainty in forcing Iran to compromise or in toppling the leadership altogether. Moreover, sustained military pressure may not advance Washington's strategic goals. Instead, it risks making future negotiations far more difficult, as trust between Tehran and Washington continues to erode.

How could Iran's political transition unfold?

In the interim, Iran has announced that a temporary leadership council – composed of the president, the head of the judiciary and a jurist from the Guardian Council – will assume certain duties.

Mehdi Latifi, editor-in-chief of Ana News Agency in Tehran, told CGTN that the broader regional implications remain difficult to predict, much depending on how quickly a new leadership structure consolidates authority. He acknowledged that the absence of such a long-standing figure presents challenges.

"After nearly five decades of leadership, Ayatollah Khamenei had become a figure recognized across generations and broadly accepted within much of the political establishment," Latifi said. "It is difficult to identify another individual with comparable stature who could command similar cross-factional support."

Wang Jin, director of the Center for Strategic Studies at Northwest University in China, said Iran will need to initiate a formal succession process following Khamenei's death.

Under Iran's constitutional framework, the Supreme Leader is selected by the Assembly of Experts. However, given that the country is operating under wartime conditions, it remains unclear whether the body can convene smoothly. Wang noted that this could lead to procedural delays.

He also pointed out that Khamenei may have designated a successor in a private will. "According to precedent, Ayatollah Khomeini's succession followed his will, which was later endorsed by the Assembly of Experts," Wang said. "If Khamenei left a similar directive, it could guide the transition."

Wang emphasized that while the succession process could be complex, Iran's political institutions are likely to manage the transition without descending into chaos.

Meanwhile, Fan Hongda, director of the China-Middle East Research Center at Shaoxing University, noted that U.S. and Israeli statements about "overthrowing the Iranian regime" are very ambiguous. "Does this refer to replacing the Supreme Leader personally, or to dismantling and rebuilding the entire political system? These are fundamentally different scenarios," he said. Given the absence of a strong opposition leader, he believes any transition is more likely to remain within the existing framework.

Sun Taiyi, a professor at Christopher Newport University, added that Iran's internal trajectory – whether a prolonged leadership vacuum produces a new regional equilibrium or deeper instability – will significantly shape Washington's next move. "In that uncertainty lies considerable risk," Sun said.

Experts: Escalation likely, but prolonged war uncertain

On the military front, experts warn of imminent escalation, but assess that the conflict is unlikely to evolve into a prolonged war.

CMG military commentator Wei Dongxu said Iran is likely to retaliate forcefully. He suggested that U.S. assets in the northern Arabian Sea, including the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier, could become potential targets due to their proximity to Iran. Tehran may deploy anti-ballistic missile systems, loitering drones and long-range reconnaissance drones in such operations, he said.

Su Xiaohui, deputy director of the Department of American Studies at the China Institute of International Studies, also assessed that the conflict is unlikely to be a one-off exchange and could surpass last year's 12-day confrontation in scale. Iran's response so far appears stronger than in the previous round.

However, she emphasized that both Washington and Israel face constraints. The United States remains reluctant to become deeply entangled in another prolonged Middle East conflict, while regional countries are wary of a full-scale war.

Su argued that military pressure alone will not force Iran to compromise and may undermine long-term diplomatic objectives. "The launch of military operations has damaged the atmosphere for negotiations," she said, warning that restoring talks would be extremely difficult given the deepened distrust.

Sun echoed this assessment, noting that the U.S. has shown no sign of deploying large-scale ground forces, suggesting it does not envision a prolonged occupation. U.S. President Donald Trump has said he left himself multiple "off-ramps," indicating flexibility in scaling operations up or down.

According to Sun, Washington's exit mechanism is relatively straightforward – air operations can be paused once strategic signaling goals are met. Given Iran's current capabilities, its ability to inflict decisive damage on core U.S. or Israeli interests appears limited, potentially reducing the likelihood of deeper American entanglement.

Tang Zhichao, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, stressed that without ground forces, military strikes alone may not compel Iran to yield. "If the conflict drags on and produces a more hardline leadership in Tehran – or if Iranian retaliation causes heavy U.S. casualties – the crisis could become a major political setback for Washington," Tang said.

Latifi criticized the military campaign as having "done nothing but create widespread distrust." While he expects tensions to intensify in the coming days, he does not foresee a prolonged and severe war. "Given the scope of the conflict, I do not think we will witness a prolonged and severe war."

Experts believe whether Khamenei's death leads to systemic transformation, temporary turbulence, or a recalibrated equilibrium will depend less on dramatic declarations and more on the strategic calculations that follow.

(CGTN editors Chen Guifang and Le Tian contributed to this report.)