US-Iran conflict: Ripple effects across domains amid civilizational clash

Editor's note: Pang Xinhua is a special commentator on current affairs for CGTN. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily those of CGTN.

As the smoke of joint US-Israeli raids envelops Iran, the Middle East is once again engulfed in war, sending shockwaves through global markets and the international order. This sudden military operation is far from a mere geopolitical skirmish; it is a full-blown eruption of intertwined civilizational differences, hegemonic expansion and power struggles. From historical grievances to present-day confrontation, from military clashes to economic backlash, the US-Iran conflict unfolds inexorably, triggering ripple effects across politics, security, energy, finance and other fields. It is profoundly reshaping the trajectory of the current world order and placing human civilization under unprecedented strain amid the rift between war and rules.

Civilizational fault lines and geopolitical games: The deep roots of US-Iran rivalry

At its core, the US-Iran conflict is a profound collision rooted in civilizational divergence and geopolitical rivalry. The trap warned of in Samuel P. Huntington's "Clash of Civilizations" has repeatedly played out across the Middle East. The clash between Islamic civilization and Western values is not a simple contest between religion and secularism, but a fundamental divide over development paths, value systems and collective identity. The 1979 Iranian Islamic Revolution marked a historic turning point in bilateral relations: Iran's choice to break away from Western control and establish an Islamic political system completely upended America's interests in the Middle East, turning the two nations from allies into sworn enemies.

In 1984, during the Iran-Iraq War, the US secretly provided limited support to Iran out of geopolitical concerns to contain Soviet expansion. Yet this brief, interest-driven cooperation could never mask the deep-seated rift between their civilizations and systems. After the Cold War, the US labeled Iran part of the "axis of evil," using nuclear issues and regional influence as pretexts to impose relentless sanctions, isolation and deterrence, forcing unilateral hegemony onto Middle Eastern affairs. The Islamic world's vigilance against Western interference, Iran's defense of national sovereignty and right to development, and the US-led unipolar order stand in sharp opposition. This rivalry is both an inevitable outcome of the reshaping of the Middle East and an unavoidable product of the absence of civilizational dialogue and the prevalence of hegemonic logic, laying the groundwork for subsequent military conflict.

Artillery replaces dialogue: The collapse of civilization and rules under hegemonic logic

When hegemony seeks to write order with artillery and elevates force to become the only language, the door to civilizational dialogue slams shut. The US-Israeli raid on Iran blatantly disregards fundamental principles of international law, trampling national sovereignty and multilateral rules underfoot. US President Donald Trump openly declared, "I don't need international law," claiming his power is bound only by his "own morality," a statement laying bare the arrogance of unilateralism. Under hegemonic thinking, cornerstones of international relations such as sovereign equality and non-interference in internal affairs are wantonly violated; the authority of the UN Security Council is rendered meaningless, and the international system descends into structural paralysis.

Military force replaces diplomatic negotiation, the law of the jungle supplants the spirit of contract, and human civilization regresses amid the flames of war. Technological achievements meant to benefit humanity are turned into weapons of hegemonic expansion: Precision-guided munitions, drones, and other equipment become tools to violate territorial integrity and slaughter innocent lives.

When powerful nations rewrite rules at will with force, the right to survival and development of weaker states is left unprotected. The international community slides from "rules-based governance" to "might makes right." The fruits of civilizational progress are eroded by hegemonic ambition. Global security, fairness and justice face an unprecedented crisis.

Market turmoil and supply chain disruption: A global economic tsunami triggered by conflict

The shockwaves of the US-Iran conflict are quickly sweeping through core sectors, including energy, shipping and finance, triggering violent upheavals in the global economy. As the "world's oil valve," the Strait of Hormuz carries roughly 20% of global seaborne oil trade, with Gulf states' energy exports heavily reliant on this passage. Since the outbreak of conflict, shipping through the strait has effectively ground to a halt: Oil tankers are lying idle, insurance costs are skyrocketing, and international oil prices are surging in response. The butterfly effect in energy markets ripples rapidly across the globe.

Fears over energy security have quickly spread to aviation, shipping, financial markets and the entire supply chain. Aviation fuel costs climb, disrupting international flight operations; shipping routes through the Red Sea and Persian Gulf are blocked, snapping global logistics chains, with port congestion and cargo delays becoming the norm. Risk aversion surges in financial markets, triggering stock market volatility, currency instability, and soaring prices for safe-haven assets like gold. This conflict not only undermines the stability of the global economy but also exposes the fragility of the existing international economic system: Supply chains overly dependent on single corridors and held hostage by geopolitics can collapse at any moment amid war, forcing all nations to bear the cost of hegemonic rivalry.

No winners in war: Dialogue as the only path to crisis resolution

History repeatedly proves that warmongers eventually become trapped in the fires they ignite – and this conflict will have no winners. The US risks being mired in a quagmire, facing rising domestic opposition; Israel confronts retaliation from regional armed groups, with its security situation deteriorating; Iran suffers military strikes, inflicting heavy losses on civilian lives and property; war spreads across the Middle East, halting peace processes; the global economy buckles under conflict pressure, with ordinary people enduring inflation and unemployment. Innocent lives become sacrifices to hegemonic ambition; the scars on civilization and the suffering of ordinary people are the conflict's heaviest toll.

The world urgently needs crisis management and rational mediation. Unilateral sanctions and military strikes cannot resolve fundamental contradictions. Civilizational differences can be bridged through dialogue, and geopolitical disputes resolved through negotiation. The international community must uphold multilateralism, push for an immediate ceasefire and a return to diplomatic negotiations, reject hegemonic thinking and zero-sum games, respect national sovereignty and development paths, replace military confrontation with equal dialogue, and move from plunder for gain to mutually beneficial cooperation. Only in this way can conflict escalation be averted, peace in the Middle East be safeguarded, and global stability and the common interests of humanity be preserved.

The smoke of the US-Iran conflict is both the agony of civilizational clashes and the bitter fruit of hegemonic logic. From civilizational fault lines to military confrontation, from the collapse of rules to economic turmoil, this conflict sends a stark warning to the world: Civilizational differences must not be an excuse for confrontation, military expansion cannot bring lasting order, and unilateral hegemony will ultimately be rejected by history. In an era of deepening globalization, humanity's destinies are intertwined. Only by upholding multilateralism, respecting civilizational diversity, and advocating dialogue and consultation can we break the cycle of conflict, escape Huntington's trap, replace war with peace, fanaticism with reason, and rivalry with cooperation, laying a solid foundation for the progress of human civilization and enduring world peace.

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