Will China leapfrog itself in the next five-year plan?

Editor's note: Hussein Askary, a special commentator for CGTN, is the Vice-Chairman of the Belt and Road Institute in Sweden, and a Distinguished Research Fellow in the Guangdong Institute for International Strategies. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

Chinese Premier Li Qiang delivered a government work report (GWR) on Thursday at the fourth session of the 14th National People's Congress (NPC), in which he outlined what could become history's largest and most advanced leap in science and technology-driven economic progress and growth in the coming five years.

One of the most extraordinary points Li made, among many interesting ones, is the government's intention to integrate the best achievements of the past few years in science, technology and innovation with China's compact industrial system. The government intends to incentivize this process across every sector of the economy to create a consolidated productive force from the many parts of the amazing industrial system China has built so far.     

To simplify this transformational process, imagine a football team made of the world's best goalkeepers, defence players, midfielders and forwards in one team. Then, you train them together in a several-month boot camp to match and integrate their technical qualities with tactical schemes. This is what we may expect to happen to China's high-quality economic development during the implementation period of the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030).

China has leapfrogged the industrial world in the past decade in many fields of science, technology, engineering and industrial production. Chinese companies, both state-owned and private, have become global top-tier players not only in production capacity and quality but also in innovation. However, while all these sectors might be seen and function as discrete entities acting separately, in the next five years, high-quality development and a new combination of productive forces will make it imperative to integrate them into a single, continuous whole.

This will be the launching pad towards the intermediate goal of "realizing socialist modernization" by 2035 as a stepping stone towards the 2049 Second Centenary Goal of building a "modern socialist country that is prosperous, strong, democratic, culturally advanced, harmonious, and beautiful."

The above is not a guessing game or speculation, but an assessment based on examining the previous five-year plans of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, especially since Chinese President Xi Jinping presented concepts related to high-quality development for years.

What these five-year plans reveal is an incredible level of consistency, unity of long-term vision and ability to deliver even amidst some of the harshest international and domestic ups and downs. The marriage of "high-quality development" with innovation, represented in the concept of "new quality productive forces," to pursue the long-term vision is what makes the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan unique. 

Premier Li strongly emphasized, in delivering the GWR, that among the major strategic tasks of the government over the next five years, a pivotal one will be "the pursuit of high-quality development," based on a solid modern industrial system that relies on advanced manufacturing as the backbone for achieving greater self-reliance.

He emphasized that science and technology must deliver advanced innovation and breakthroughs in core technologies. One of the main goals is to nurture new industries and future industries, such as new energy, quantum technology, embodied artificial intelligence (AI), brain-computer interfaces, 6G technology and satellite internet. It's emphasized that state-owned enterprises must take the lead in technological expansion, especially in the fields of aerospace, aviation, biomedicine and the low-altitude economy.

However, Li reiterated that these developments would take place within a unified national market and productive chains. In this context, market forces and small- and medium-sized enterprises specializing in sophisticated technologies will be supported by the government to become leaders in future technologies, enabling faster application of technologies such as AI to production processes and services. Even traditional industries and agricultural production will be modernized and upgraded within this consolidated system, with new scientific and technological innovations entering these sectors too.

As Li indicated, the key to this process is to push for full integration between technological and industrial innovation. Efforts will be made to integrate the education system and the public culture of innovation into this technological and industrial unified structure. Talent development centers will be established at the national level, with specialized centers in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hubei region and the Guangdong Greater Bay Area to foster world-class innovation engines. These centers will undertake major national science and technology projects in the coming years.

What we will probably witness is that economic growth and progress will no longer be measured by the gross domestic product, but rather by the number of scientific and technological breakthroughs achieved and incorporated into the productive processes of the economy to make them bankable.

China's success in planning and implementing such a vision is great news not only for the Chinese people but for the world, where the 15th Five-Year Plan dedicates a special place to the integration of the concept of high-quality development into the Belt and Road Initiative and how common prosperity and joint development can lead to a brighter shared future for mankind. This is extremely important at a time when many nations and regions in the world are gazing down a huge precipice of fear and uncertainty. 

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