Gasoline retail prices are shown in a petrol station in Dongguan, Guangdong Province, China, March 10, 2026. /VCG
China is expected to remain resilient to the ongoing oil price fluctuations due to its strategic crude reserves and reduced dependence on oil-generated power, analysts have said.
Crude oil prices retreated to below $100 per barrel on Monday after briefly surging to their highest level in nearly two years at $119.5. The high volatility is a result of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which began with US and Israeli strikes on Iran.
On Tuesday, China raised its retail prices of gasoline and diesel, which will respectively increase by 695 yuan (about $100.5) and 670 yuan per tonne, according to a statement released by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC).
Despite the price adjustments, analysts expect the Chinese market to remain relatively insulated from oil market fluctuations.
According to an analysis published on Monday by OCBC, a Singaporean multinational banking and financial services group, the Chinese economy is resilient to the ongoing volatile market due to its declining structural dependence on oil, which is supported by "the rapid penetration of electric vehicles, increased substitution through coal-to-chemicals feedstock, and a power generation system that is largely insulated from oil price fluctuations."
Erica Downs, a senior research scholar at Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy, said China has about 1.4 billion barrels of crude, which is enough to cover the lost supplies for six months, even if all the country's imports from the Middle East were cut off.
Amid oil price swings, US President Donald Trump said on Monday at a news conference at his Doral golf club that the US will lift some sanctions against crude oil sales until use of the Strait of Hormuz becomes viable again.
Fluctuations in energy costs are felt globally as many countries adjust their fuel prices and related policies.
The president of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, said on Monday that the government will introduce domestic fuel price caps for the first time in nearly 30 years. A senior Japanese parliament member said on Sunday that a national oil reserve storage site had been instructed to prepare for a possible release of crude. Meanwhile, Vietnam plans to temporarily waive import tariffs on fuel until the end of April, according to a government statement.
Supply disruptions responsible for oil price fluctuations largely stem from the sharply curtailed traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for global oil and gas trade, which handles nearly 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments.
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