Space Race 2.0? In lunar program, China eyes cooperation where US sees competition

Talk of a new "space race" is resurfacing as the United States increasingly casts China as a competitor in human moon landing, with some officials describing China's lunar program as a "credible competition from its greatest geopolitical adversary increasing by the day."

A group of US senators has cited China's growing space capabilities while promoting new legislation aimed at strengthening US space research. "It is critical for America to have every tool and competitive advantage at our disposal to launch into the next space race," Senator John Cornyn said.

Farid Gamgami, a German space systems expert who serves as vice director of China's National Key Laboratory for Satellite Digitalization Technology in Shanghai, said a closer look reveals that only one side is truly "racing." In fact, the "space race" rhetoric is frequently employed to secure bipartisan funding by framing space as a critical domain of national security.

The idea of a "space race" is not new in US political discourse. During the Cold War, the US and the Soviet Union competed intensely for technological supremacy in space, a rivalry widely known as the Space Race.

At a Senate hearing in December last year, NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman said, "America will return to the moon before our great rival," adding that "if we make a mistake, we may never catch up, and the consequences could shift the balance of power here on Earth."

Amid this competitive atmosphere, the timeline of the US lunar program has shifted repeatedly. The planned return to the moon has slipped from an initial 2024 target to 2026, then 2027, and most recently to 2028.

The shifting timeline contrasts sharply with the relative stability of China's lunar plans. Since launching its lunar exploration program in 2004, China has followed a steady roadmap.

After announcing in 2023 its goal of landing astronauts on the moon before 2030, China has continued advancing related spacecraft development and engineering work without adjusting its schedule in response to the US timeline.

US' shifting goals and timelines

Changes in administrations have also made the US return-to-the-moon effort turbulent. In 2004, President George W. Bush set a goal of returning to the moon by no later than 2020, and NASA developed a series of plans later known as the Constellation Program.

President Barack Obama canceled the program in 2010, retaining only some projects such as the Orion spacecraft. The new administration instead proposed sending astronauts to asteroids around 2025 and landing humans on Mars in the 2030s.

In 2017, President Donald Trump signed Space Policy Directive 1, reviving the human lunar landing plan and scrapping the asteroid mission proposed by the previous administration. Gamgami said this illustrates the inherent volatility of US space policy, which often shifts with changing political tides.

China sticks to its own lunar timeline 

China's human lunar program has shown strong long-term continuity. Yang Yuguang, chair of the space transportation committee of the International Astronautical Federation, said the Chinese space program is driven primarily by domestic needs such as technological development and social progress.

As early as 2004, China's National Space Administration launched the moon exploration program, outlining a three-stage blueprint: robotic lunar exploration, human lunar landing and the construction of a lunar base by 2045 at the earliest.

China's lunar program has not focused solely on landing astronauts but follows a broader scientific exploration strategy. Between 2007 and 2024, China successfully launched six Chang'e probes. 

Chang'e-4 achieved humanity's first landing on the far side of the moon, Chang'e-5 returned lunar samples to Earth for the first time, and Chang'e-6 brought back samples from the moon's far side, providing breakthroughs in understanding its geological evolution.

As China moves into the human landing phase, it is developing core systems like the Long March-10 carrier rocket, the Mengzhou crewed spacecraft, the Lanyue lunar lander and the Wangyu lunar spacesuit. Multiple key tests were completed in 2025.

On February 11 this year, a low-altitude demonstration test of the Long March-10 rocket system and a maximum dynamic pressure escape flight test of the Mengzhou spacecraft were successfully conducted. 

The combined test simulated recovery procedures and verified key functions of the rocket's ascent and recovery phases as well as the spacecraft's emergency escape and recovery capability, providing valuable flight data and engineering experience for future human lunar missions, said Yang.

In terms of international cooperation, the International Lunar Research Station (ILRS) was designed by China as an open architecture with global partners, while the US tends to view space as a "high ground" to be dominated, Gamgami said, adding that US lunar programs require acceptance of its leadership, whereas China promotes a more open model. 

As a result, the US could join the China-initiated ILRS, while China is effectively excluded from the US-led Artemis program due to US legal restrictions on cooperation with China.