After two weeks: What's next in the US-Israel-Iran conflict?

Two weeks have passed since the United States and Israel launched large-scale military strikes against Iran, a campaign that has already exceeded the duration of the "12-day war" between Iran and the US-Israeli coalition in June 2025.

In both scale and intensity, the current confrontation appears markedly larger. Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz – one of the world's most vital energy routes – has come under severe pressure, tightening global oil supplies and pushing prices sharply higher.

As new developments emerge almost daily, the central question remains: how long will this conflict last, and could it ignite a broader regional confrontation?

According to US and Israeli officials, more than 15,000 Iranian targets have been hit over the past two weeks. Israel says it alone has conducted more than 7,600 air strikes inside Iran.

The strikes have focused on what the US and Israel describe as key elements of Iran's military infrastructure, including intelligence facilities, missile launch systems, nuclear research centers and drone manufacturing sites. Energy infrastructure has also been targeted, including export facilities on Kharg Island, a hub for Iran's oil shipments that plays a significant role in global energy markets.

Iran has responded with repeated waves of retaliation under an operation it calls "Operation True Promise 4." Iranian officials said that by Friday, the campaign had reached its 46th round of attacks, including four launches on Friday.

Iran said they have targeted US military assets across the Middle East. These include claims of attacks against refueling aircraft and attempts to strike the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72). The United States has repeatedly denied that the carrier was hit, saying Iranian missiles never came close.

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps also said it has attacked US military bases across the Middle East such as Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, Al Dhafra Air Base in the UAE and Erbil Air Base in Iraq.

What began as direct confrontation between Israel, the United States and Iran is increasingly reverberating across the wider Middle East.

Israel said it has struck more than 170 military targets in Lebanon, as fighting with the armed group Hezbollah intensifies along its northern border.

Meanwhile, other armed groups have signaled involvement. According to reports cited by Newsweek, the Iraqi militia network known as the Islamic Resistance in Iraq has offered financial rewards for information that could lead to the capture or killing of senior US military and intelligence officials.

Explosions and sporadic attacks have also been reported in several countries across the region, raising fears that the conflict could escalate into a broader regional crisis.

Mounting casualties

As the fighting continues, casualties are rising on multiple sides.

Israel says it has killed between 4,000 and 5,000 Iranian military personnel, as well as more than 380 Hezbollah fighters.

The US has acknowledged losses as well. A Boeing KC-135 Stratotanker refueling aircraft crashed during operations, killing six crew members. According to The Wall Street Journal, citing a US official, 13 American service members have died in operations related to this round of conflict, while roughly 200 have been wounded, including 10 seriously.

Iran, for its part, said the strikes have hit large numbers of civilian areas. On Friday, the Iranian Red Crescent Society said that more than 24,500 civilian installations across Iran have been damaged in strikes carried out by the United States and Israel, including medical centers. Iran's ambassador to the United Nations on Wednesday said that more than 1,300 Iranian civilians have been killed. A US Tomahawk missile strike on an Iranian elementary school alone killed over 160 people, mostly pupils.

Lebanese Health Ministry Friday reported that the death toll from Israeli attacks on Lebanon since March 2 has reached 773, with 1,933 injuries. It also noted a rise in child casualties, with 103 killed and 326 injured.

The conflict has triggered intense debate within the international community.

At the United Nations Security Council, a draft resolution calling for an immediate halt to military operations in the Middle East failed to pass after opposition from the United States.

China has been actively engaged in diplomatic efforts. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has held phone conversations with more than a dozen foreign ministers from countries that are either directly involved in the conflict, neighboring Gulf states or major powers. Beijing has also sent a special envoy to the Middle East in an effort to promote dialogue and de-escalation.

European governments appear caught in a difficult position. While many remain close allies of Washington, some officials said they were not fully consulted ahead of the strikes. At the same time, Europe, already grappling with energy pressures linked to the Ukraine crisis, faces renewed concerns over oil supply disruptions.

Germany has ruled out participation in military operations. France has deployed a carrier group to the Mediterranean, although analysts say the move is largely symbolic.

Speaking in Strasbourg, France, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Wednesday the Middle East conflict has imposed heavy economic costs on Europe, driving up energy prices and adding billions of euros to import bills.

Public opinion is also showing signs of strain. Anti-war protests have taken place in more than 50 cities across the US, as well as in London and Paris, denouncing the US and Israel's Iran strikes as an illegal act of war.

Even within political circles in Washington, divisions have begun to surface, with some supporters of US President Donald Trump expressing concern that the country could become entangled in a prolonged conflict similar to the wars in Iraq or Afghanistan.

For now, no party involved has offered a clear timeline for when the conflict might end.

Analysts said the battlefield situation remains fluid. Wang Jin, director of the Center for Strategic Studies at Northwest University, noted that the fighting currently shows no decisive advantage for either side.

Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei on Thursday called for the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz and pledged to open new fronts in his country's conflict with the United States and Israel.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has set out three specific conditions for ending the conflict: the United States and Israel "recognizing Iran's legitimate rights, payment of reparations, and firm international guarantees against future aggression."

In Washington, President Trump has sent mixed signals about the future of the campaign. Earlier he suggested the military action could end "very quickly," but later told reporters he could not say how long it might last, adding that operations would continue "as long as necessary."

Israel, for its part, has taken a harder line, saying its objective is to "undermine the foundations" of Iran's government.

However, US intelligence indicates that Iran's leadership is still largely intact and is not at risk of collapse any time soon.

Much of the world is now watching developments in the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly one-fifth of global seaborne oil trade passes.

Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi has said some countries' vessels are still being allowed to pass through the strait, while nations involved in attacks on Iran may not enjoy what he called "safe passage." He also denied reports that Iran had placed mines in the waterway.

The Turkish government on Friday confirmed that a Turkish-owned vessel safely passed through the Strait of Hormuz after receiving approval from Iranian authorities.

At the same time, the United States has reportedly deployed an additional 5,000 Marines to the region and is considering naval escorts for oil tankers.

The tension has already rattled global energy markets. Oil prices have once surged close to $120 per barrel, the highest level since 2022. The International Energy Agency said its 32 member states have agreed to release 400 million barrels of strategic reserves, while G7 governments and several Asian economies have announced measures to stabilize fuel prices.