How the Iran war could accelerate the end of US hegemony in the Gulf

Editor's note: Abhishek G Bhaya is a senior Indian journalist and international affairs commentator for CGTN. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

The war between the United States, Israel and Iran has already reshaped the strategic landscape of the Middle East. What began as a military confrontation aimed at weakening Tehran has triggered a chain reaction that now threatens to undermine the very foundations of American power in the region. As Iranian retaliation expands from military targets to economic infrastructure and vital maritime routes, a critical question is emerging among analysts: Could an unintended outcome of the conflict be the gradual erosion – or even eventual ouster – of the American presence from the Gulf?

For decades, Washington has been the dominant external power in the Persian Gulf. Since the late Cold War period, US military bases, naval fleets and security guarantees have underpinned the regional order. From Kuwait and Bahrain to Qatar, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia, American forces have served as both deterrent and security umbrella for energy infrastructure and shipping routes that are central to the global economy. But the current war is exposing the vulnerabilities of that architecture in ways not seen before.

One of the clearest signs of this shift has been Iran's strategy of expanding the battlefield beyond conventional military targets. Rather than limiting its retaliation to US bases or Israeli facilities, Tehran has openly warned that American economic assets – including banks, financial institutions and technology companies – could also become targets. These threats have already had visible effects. Parts of Dubai's financial district, one of the most important hubs for global banking and investment in the Middle East, reportedly emptied out after major financial institutions activated contingency plans and moved staff to remote operations. Neighboring Qatar has witnessed a similar move by American and British banks.

While such measures are precautionary, they reveal an uncomfortable reality for Washington and its partners: The dense network of American economic and technological interests in the Gulf is now part of the strategic battlefield.

The Strait of Hormuz: A test of American naval dominance

At the same time, the crisis surrounding the Strait of Hormuz has exposed another structural vulnerability. Roughly a fifth of the world's oil supply passes through this narrow maritime corridor between Iran and the UAE. In recent weeks, Iranian threats to restrict or disrupt traffic through the strait have caused shipping delays, insurance spikes and widespread concern in global energy markets.

Despite maintaining one of the world's most powerful navies in the region, the United States has struggled to quickly neutralize the threat. Iran's use of asymmetric tactics – including naval mines, fast attack boats, drones and coastal missile batteries – means that even a limited disruption can halt tanker traffic and trigger global market shocks.

This reality appears to have forced Washington into an unusual position. Rather than acting unilaterally, the United States has reportedly been urging allies and partners to help secure the Strait of Hormuz. NATO members and Asian energy importers including China have been asked to contribute naval resources or diplomatic pressure to ensure that the waterway remains open.

For a country that has long presented itself as the guarantor of global maritime security, this reliance on others marks a significant shift. It reflects not only the scale of the challenge but also the limits of American power in an increasingly complex regional environment.

Gulf allies at crossroads: Security vs. exposure

Iran, for its part, seems keenly aware of this dynamic. Its leaders have framed the war not simply as a confrontation with Israel but as a broader struggle against the American military presence in the Middle East. Iranian officials have repeatedly argued that US bases across the region are the primary reason for instability and have warned that any country hosting facilities used for attacks on Iran could face retaliation.

At the same time, Tehran has signaled that its conflict is not with the Gulf states themselves. Iranian leaders have suggested that attacks on neighboring countries would stop if their territory is not used as a launchpad for operations against Iran. This message appears designed to drive a wedge between Washington and its regional partners – encouraging Gulf governments to reconsider the risks associated with hosting American forces.

For decades, the US military presence in the Gulf has been viewed by regional governments as an insurance policy against external threats, particularly from Iran. But the current war is raising a difficult question for those same governments: Does hosting American bases now make them more vulnerable rather than more secure?

That dilemma could have profound long-term implications. If Gulf states begin to believe that American military installations are magnets for attacks, the political calculus surrounding these bases could gradually shift. Even a subtle recalibration, such as limiting the scope of US operations or diversifying security partnerships, would represent a departure from the traditional security architecture of the region.

At the same time, broader geopolitical trends are already reshaping the Middle East. Over the past decade, countries such as China and Russia have expanded their economic and diplomatic footprints across the region. China in particular has emerged as the largest trading partner for many Gulf states and a major consumer of Middle Eastern energy.

Beijing has generally avoided direct military involvement in regional conflicts, preferring to position itself as a diplomatic mediator and economic partner. Yet the current crisis around the Strait of Hormuz has placed China in an unusual spotlight. Because it imports large volumes of oil through the waterway, it has a strong interest in maintaining freedom of navigation.

The fact that Washington is now urging Beijing to help ensure that the strait remains open illustrates how the balance of power is evolving. In a region once defined by American dominance, other global actors are increasingly becoming stakeholders in its security and stability.

Bases abandoned, assets destroyed: US faces strategic collapse

The scale and severity of losses sustained by the United States in the ongoing war with Iran raise serious questions about the durability of an American presence in the Gulf and the wider Middle East. US forces have suffered significant casualties, with at least seven personnel killed and around 140 wounded in attacks on bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

The damage to military assets has been extensive: Three F‑15E fighters lost over Kuwait, at least five refueling aircraft struck at Saudi airbases, missile and drone damage at Bahrain's Fifth Fleet headquarters, and compound destruction at US installations in Kuwait (Camp Arifjan). Iranian attacks even destroyed THAAD missile systems deployed in the region, compelling the United States to urgently redeploy additional THAAD batteries from South Korea to restore minimal regional missile defense coverage.

The operational impact has been compounded by precautionary measures and forced withdrawals. The US military had already vacated its base in Iraq, where its presence had been legally curtailed after the Iraqi government's 2020 demand for withdrawal. Following a missile attack on the US Embassy in Baghdad earlier this week and increased threats from Iran-aligned militia, the US has called for all its citizens to leave Iraq.

Reports indicate that most other US bases across the Gulf are now either vacated or operating at minimal capacity, while multiple embassies and civilian operations have been scaled down or evacuated entirely, as documented in State Department advisories urging Americans to leave the Gulf states and surrounding countries

Taken together, these factors suggest that the United States is facing not only a tactical challenge but a strategic erosion of influence. Military supremacy is no longer sufficient to guarantee operational or political control; the perception of US forces as an invulnerable stabilizing force has been severely compromised.

With critical assets damaged, personnel evacuated and missile defenses weakened, Washington may be compelled to scale back its presence across the Gulf, consolidating forces in fewer, more defensible locations. 

The war is proving that American hegemony in the Middle East is not immutable and that the combination of asymmetric Iranian tactics, regional hostilities and logistical vulnerabilities could force a recalibration of the US's strategic posture across the region.

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