Editor's note:  Cao Cong, a special commentator for CGTN, is a doctoral candidate at the School of Global and Regional Studies International Politics and Economics, University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

On March 18, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi departed for a visit to the United States. This marks her first trip to meet US President Donald Trump since securing a domestic electoral victory.  

While Japanese media portray the visit as an important opportunity to consolidate the alliance, it is also widely seen as a diplomatic move carrying elements of a stress test. Recent developments suggest that Japan's approach combines proactive strategic maneuvering with reactive adjustments, and its ambition to advance a so-called "upgrade" of the alliance is unlikely to proceed smoothly.

The immediate driver of this visit lies in Japan's attempt to leverage its domestic political advantage to recalibrate relations with the United States. Following a victory in the 2026 House of Representatives election, the ruling coalition has gained greater latitude in advancing security and foreign policy agendas.  

Against this backdrop, Japan is eager to translate domestic political strength into external strategic initiative. On the one hand, Tokyo seeks deeper military cooperation with Washington in areas such as joint missile production and intelligence sharing, even exploring mechanisms akin to "integrated decision-making" to elevate its standing within the alliance. On the other hand, Japan aims to deepen coordination with the United States on economic security issues, including energy and critical minerals, to reinforce supply chain resilience.

However, these efforts are not simply about accommodating US demands; they reflect Japan's own strategic anxieties.  

The first is security anxiety. Amid evolving regional dynamics, Japan continues to strengthen its military capabilities to enhance deterrence through the alliance. The second is economic anxiety. In the context of global supply chain restructuring, Japan seeks to secure access to key resources and technologies through closer cooperation with the United States. The third is status anxiety. As the international landscape shifts, Japan aspires to gain greater influence within the alliance rather than remain a subordinate actor.

Nevertheless, Japan's ambitions face immediate structural constraints. The current US approach toward allies under the Trump administration is increasingly transactional and instrumental, rather than grounded in stable commitments. Under such a policy orientation, Japan's proactive alignment is unlikely to yield reciprocal trust; instead, it may result in mounting expectations for Tokyo to shoulder greater security and economic burdens.

More concerning is the growing evidence of Japan's reactive posture on key issues. For instance, US demands for allied involvement in safeguarding the Strait of Hormuz have forced Japan to strike a delicate balance between domestic public opinion and alliance obligations. Similarly, in the realm of energy and resource cooperation, Japan appears compelled to align with US strategic arrangements, even considering procurement from specific regions, which to some extent constrains its economic policy autonomy.

These developments indicate that, despite emphasizing decisions "based on national interests," Japan remains structurally constrained by its dependence on the United States.

From a broader perspective, Japan's attempt to push the alliance into a so-called "new stage" is confronted with three structural contradictions.

First, the asymmetry of power within the alliance remains fundamentally unchanged. The United States retains dominance in the military and technological domains, making it difficult to achieve a genuine "equal partnership" regardless of Japan's increased contributions. The notion of "integrated decision-making" may ultimately translate into deeper Japanese embedding within US strategic frameworks.

Second, uncertainty in US policy toward allies is on the rise. With Washington's increasingly utilitarian and volatile foreign policy, Japan finds it difficult to form stable expectations. Under such conditions, any vision of "alliance upgrading" lacks a sustainable foundation.

Third, Japan's own strategic positioning is inherently contradictory. While it seeks to enhance security and status through the alliance, it also aspires to maintain a degree of strategic autonomy. In practice, these objectives often conflict, leaving Japan caught in a dilemma in its approach toward the United States.

Consequently, Japan's narrative of "opening a new chapter" in the alliance appears more rhetorical than substantive. While US-Japan ties may indeed deepen in military and economic domains, such "deepening" does not necessarily translate into equality or stability. Instead, it risks reinforcing asymmetric dependence and further constraining Japan's room for maneuver on major international issues.

At its core, this visit reflects a complex and contradictory strategic mindset: Japan seeks to expand its strategic space through the alliance, yet struggles to escape structural dependence; it emphasizes national interests, yet is repeatedly forced into reactive adjustments. This dynamic makes it difficult for Japan-US relations to achieve the qualitative transformation Japan envisions.

Amid profound changes in the global landscape, any attempt to pursue security and status through strengthened military alliances inevitably entails risks and potential backlash. If Japan continues down this path, it may not only fail to achieve genuine strategic autonomy but also exacerbate regional tensions and undermine its own long-term interests. This is the underlying logic behind this visit to the United States that warrants the greatest vigilance.

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